Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 211727
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1127 AM CST THU FEB 21 2013
   
   VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND
   ERN GULF COAST STATES...
   
   ...GULF COAST STATES/CAROLINAS...
   SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES
   TONIGHT AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVE
   QUICKLY NEWD ACROSS THE MID MO AND MID MS VALLEYS. AT THE SFC...A
   LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE MID TO UPPER MS
   VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES SEWD ACROSS THE LOWER
   MS VALLEY. A WELL-DEFINED PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
   THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES AROUND MIDDAY. MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST
   THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE ORIENTED FROM FAR SE LA EXTENDING
   NEWD INTO SRN AL BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SFC HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE SHOULD FOCUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE PREFRONTAL
   TROUGH. A PERSISTENT CLUSTER OR LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
   DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA AS IS SUGGESTED BY
   THE NAM AND GFS MODELS.
   
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH AT 21Z AT MOBILE AL
   AND DOTHAN AL SHOW SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S F WITH ABOUT 1000
   J/KG OF SBCAPE. THIS ALONG WITH 50 TO 60 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY
   BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT. THE PRIMARY THREAT
   WOULD BE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE
   RULED OUT DUE TO SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL
   SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE CONDITIONAL UPON SFC HEATING AND THE
   REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION OF INSTABILITY. IF SOME AREAS CAN PARTIALLY
   CLEAR AND WARM TO NEAR 70 F...THEN LAPSE RATES COULD BECOME STEEP
   ENOUGH AT LOW-LEVELS FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGEST
   CELLS. AT THIS POINT...THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WOULD BE
   FROM FAR SERN LA NEWD ACROSS THE MOBILE VICINITY SO WILL EXPAND THE
   SLIGHT RISK AREA SWWD INTO THE GREATER FORECAST INSTABILITY. HAVE
   DRAWN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA AS FAR NEWD AS SW GA ALONG THE CORRIDOR
   OF MID 60S F SFC DEWPOINTS.
   
   FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS CNTRL GA AND THE CAROLINAS...MODEL
   FORECASTS DEVELOP SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY EARLY FRIDAY EVENING
   ALONG A GRADIENT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. SOUTH OF THE THIS
   GRADIENT...SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F BUT
   FORECAST INSTABILITY SHOULD STILL BE WEAK. THIS COMBINED WITH
   UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES COULD BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED WIND
   DAMAGE THREAT. HOWEVER...THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE WEAK
   INSTABILITY WILL KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT MARGINAL.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 02/21/2013
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z