Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 261633
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1033 AM CST TUE FEB 26 2013
   
   VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER RIDGING WITHIN A BELT OF MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES MAY BEGIN TO
   BUILD INTO THE PACIFIC COAST STATES DURING THIS PERIOD.  BUT...
   DOWNSTREAM...THE MID-LATITUDE AND SUBTROPICAL JETS APPEAR LIKELY TO
   REMAIN IN PHASE...WITH STRONG FLOW PERSISTING IN A ZONAL BELT ACROSS
   THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  IN
   ASSOCIATION WITH THIS LATTER REGIME...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...
   CURRENTLY DIGGING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS STATES...IS EXPECTED TO
   GRADUALLY MERGE INTO BROADER SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A MORE
   SLOWLY MOVING...BUT STILL PROGRESSIVE...CLOSED LOW AS IT MIGRATES
   EAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO/THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.  
   
   AS THE MID/UPPER CLOSED LOW CONTINUES INTO THE NORTHEAST ON
   WEDNESDAY...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
   REFORM EAST OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE THE SECONDARY
   FRONTAL WAVE MIGRATES FROM THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION
   INTO THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE TRAILING SURFACE
   FRONT...PROBABLY ALREADY EAST OF MUCH OF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC SEABOARD
   AT 12Z WEDNESDAY...IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY ADVANCE THROUGH THE
   REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. 
   IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...GENERALLY STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
   TO PERSIST ACROSS MOST AREAS EAST OF THE ROCKIES...AS WELL AS ACROSS
   THE WEST.
    
   ...FLORIDA...
   CONVECTION WEDNESDAY MAY BE MOST PROMINENT/WIDESPREAD WITHIN A
   POST-FRONTAL BAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA...WHERE FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF WEAK CONDITIONAL AND CONVECTIVE
   INSTABILITY ABOVE THE SHALLOW SURFACE BASED STABLE LAYER. 
   HOWEVER...A RELATIVELY WARM MID/UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT PROBABLY
   WILL SUPPRESS THE DEPTH OF CONVECTION...AND LIMIT THE RISK FOR
   LIGHTNING.  BOUNDARY LAYER BASED CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
   FRONT MAY ALSO BE INHIBITED BY THE WARM LAYER...BUT AN ISOLATED
   THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION NEAR
   THE KEYS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS.
   
   ..KERR.. 02/26/2013
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z