Apr 2, 2013 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Apr 2 06:03:18 UTC 2013
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20130402 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20130402 0600 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 020528
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1228 AM CDT TUE APR 02 2013
   
   VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
   THROUGH THE PERIOD...BRINGING COOLING ALOFT AND SOME MIDLEVEL
   MOISTENING. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
   SWD ACROSS TX...BUT THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF
   MEXICO WHERE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE ELY. WITH WARM AND MOIST AIR
   ACROSS DEEP S TX MUCH OF THE DAY...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY
   OCCUR.
   
   OVERNIGHT...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WRN
   GULF OF MEXICO...AND WILL EXTEND NWD INTO SRN LA WITH THUNDERSTORMS
   REDEVELOPING AND POSSIBLY AFFECTING COASTAL AREAS.
   
   ..DEEP S TX DURING THE DAY...
   MID TO UPPER 60S F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL EXIST ACROSS DEEP S
   TX FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PASSES DURING THE
   AFTERNOON. WITH HEATING...INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE BUT CAPPING
   AROUND 700 MB WILL LIKELY LIMIT STORM COVERAGE. FORCING FOR ASCENT
   WILL BE WEAK AND SHOULD ALSO LIMIT STORM COVERAGE. INCREASING WLY
   FLOW WITH HEIGHT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL CONDITIONALLY
   FAVOR HAIL.
   
   ...COASTAL LA AND MS LATE...
   RAIN AND STORMS WILL BE ONGOING MUCH OF THE DAY DUE TO WARM
   ADVECTION...BUT WILL NOT BE SEVERE. OVERNIGHT...AS THE UPPER TROUGH
   APPROACHES...WIND PROFILES WILL STRENGTHEN...AND DEWPOINTS WILL
   INCREASE ACROSS SERN LA AND PERHAPS SRN MS. WHILE SOME FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS SHOW A SHALLOW STABLE LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE...A FEW
   ROTATING STORMS MAY EXIST OVER THE WATER...AND POSSIBLY THREATEN
   COASTAL AREAS EARLY THU MORNING.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 04/02/2013
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z