SPC AC 080553
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1253 AM CDT MON APR 08 2013
   
   VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MO VALLEY TO THE
   SRN PLAINS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST SHOULD EVOLVE INTO
   A FEW DISTINCT SHORTWAVE IMPULSES...TWO OF WHICH WILL BE PROMINENT
   FOR AFFECTING SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE CNTRL STATES. ONE IMPULSE
   SHOULD MOVE NEWD TOWARDS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS/BLACK HILLS...WHILE
   ANOTHER SHOULD EJECT ONTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TUE NIGHT. AT THE
   SURFACE...A DRYLINE WILL MIX EWD INTO WRN OK AND ACROSS THE EDWARDS
   PLATEAU IN TX. A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESSIVELY OVERTAKE THE
   DRYLINE...LIKELY REACHING A NERN TO S-CNTRL TX LINE BY 12Z/WED. 
     
   ...LOWER MO VALLEY TO THE SRN PLAINS...
   A BROAD CORRIDOR OF SEVERE TSTMS WITH ALL HAZARD TYPES POSSIBLE IS
   EXPECTED TO COMMENCE TUE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH WED MORNING.
    
   NCEP GUIDANCE HAS FINALLY COME INTO LINE WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT
   ECMWF WITH DETAILS OVER THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...RENDERING HIGHER
   CONFIDENCE IN THE ANTICIPATED CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION. NEVERTHELESS...A
   FEW LIMITING FACTORS HAVE MITIGATED A MODERATE RISK ISSUANCE ATTM. A
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITH LOWER
   TO MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS IN MOST OF THE S-CNTRL
   CONUS...BENEATH A STOUT CAPPING INVERSION THAT SHOULD LARGELY
   INHIBIT WARM SECTOR/DRYLINE TSTM DEVELOPMENT. SHORTWAVE IMPULSES
   EJECTING FROM THE WRN CONUS TROUGH ALSO DO NOT APPEAR FAVORABLY
   TIMED FOR THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE...WITH GREATER MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
   FALLS NOT ANTICIPATED TO OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR UNTIL THE LATTER
   HALF OF THE PERIOD. DAYTIME TSTM INITIATION WILL LIKELY BE TIED TO
   THE COLD FRONT AND NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE MERGING COLD
   FRONT/DRYLINE...WITH TSTM COVERAGE SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASING DURING
   THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THE UNDERCUTTING NATURE OF THE COLD FRONT
   SHOULD LIMIT THE SUSTAINABILITY OF ROBUST INDIVIDUAL UPDRAFTS.
   
   NEVERTHELESS...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER
   SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL CLUSTERS INITIALLY PRODUCING
   LARGE HAIL /SOME SIGNIFICANT/ ALONG WITH A FEW TORNADOES AND
   ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. WITH TIME...AN EXTENSIVE LINE OF CONVECTION
   SHOULD FORM BUT AS THE COLD FRONT BECOMES INCREASINGLY
   ANAFRONTAL...SEVERE HAIL/WIND RISKS MAY BE SUBDUED. STILL...SOME
   INCREASE IN TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT IS POSSIBLE EARLY WED
   MAINLY IN NERN TX/WRN AR AS LOW-LEVEL SLYS STRENGTHEN WITH APPROACH
   OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS IMPULSE.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 04/08/2013
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z