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| Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 291728 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1228 PM CDT MON APR 29 2013 VALID 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION SWWD INTO SERN NEB/NERN KS... ...SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER TROUGH OVER WRN CANADA AND THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION EARLY TUESDAY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DIGGING/EXPANDING SLOWLY SWD...AS SHORTER-WAVELENGTH TROUGHING EMBEDDED THEREIN SHIFTS ACROSS ID TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AS THIS OCCURS...AMPLIFICATION OF DOWNSTREAM RIDGING IS FORECAST ACROSS ERN NOAM. MEANWHILE...EXPECT A WEAK UPPER LOW TO TRAVERSE EWD ACROSS THE WRN GULF COASTAL REGION TOWARD THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER THROUGH 01/12Z. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT INITIALLY EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS FORECAST TO MAKE SLOW EWD PROGRESS WITH TIME -- CROSSING THE PLAINS AND REACHING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WITH TIME. ...SWRN WI SWWD TO SERN NEB/NERN KS... LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKLY RISING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL ACT TO MAINTAIN LOWER TROPOSPHERE CAPPING AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS COMBINED WITH ONLY MODEST DESTABILIZATION SUGGESTS THAT AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. FURTHER HINDERING MORE ROBUST STORM ORGANIZATION/INTENSIFICATION WILL BE MARGINAL SHEAR -- WITH STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINING TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONTAL ZONE. GIVEN THESE FACTORS...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY 15%/SLIGHT RISK FORECAST -- WHILE DECREASING THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE THREAT AREA ACROSS KS WHERE CAPPING IS LIKELY TO INHIBIT DAYTIME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WITH GENERALLY MULTICELL ORGANIZATION EXPECTED...THREATS WILL BE LIMITED TO MAINLY MARGINAL HAIL/ISOLATED STRONGER GUSTS. STORM COVERAGE MAY INCREASE A BIT OVERNIGHT INVOF THE FRONT AS A STRONG SLY LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS...BUT INCREASED CAPPING AFTER DARK SHOULD CONTINUE TO HINDER OVERALL STORM COVERAGE IN MOST AREAS. ..GOSS.. 04/29/2013 CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z |