SPC AC 281719

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1219 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

   VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS WRN OK...MUCH OF CNTRL KS
   INTO SCNTRL NEB...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM
   SWRN TX INTO SD/SRN MN...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   NORTHEASTERN U.S....

   ...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

   LATEST WV IMAGERY SUGGESTS SECONDARY UPSTREAM CORRIDOR OF STRONGER
   FLOW IS DIGGING SEWD ALONG THE NV/CA BORDER TOWARD AZ.  WHILE THERE
   ARE DISCREPANCIES AMONG THE LATEST MODELS REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF
   THIS FLOW...IT APPEARS STRENGTHENING AT MID LEVELS MAY OCCUR OVER
   THE SRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.  12Z GFS IS THE MOST
   AGGRESSIVE INTENSIFYING FLOW AT 500MB OVER THE ERN TX PANHANDLE BY
   LATE MORNING WITH 50-60KT EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE DRYLINE INTO
   WRN OK/CNTRL KS BY 21Z.  WHILE THE NAM IS SOMEWHAT WEAKER WITH MID
   LEVEL FLOW...TIMING OF UPPER TROUGH INTO THE HIGH
   PLAINS...COINCIDENT WITH DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE...IS ON PAR WITH GFS.
    FOR THIS REASON HAVE INCREASED SEVERE PROBABILITIES ALONG/EAST OF
   THE DRYLINE TO ACCOUNT FOR A POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
   EVENT.  LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES...POSSIBLY
   STRONG...MAY ACCOMPANY SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE DAY2
   PERIOD ACROSS THE PLAINS.

   IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR HOW CONVECTION WILL ULTIMATELY EVOLVE ACROSS
   THE WARM SECTOR GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING SPEED MAX ACROSS THE
   SRN/CNTRL PLAINS.  INHIBITION AND SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY LAYER
   CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY LIMIT HEATING ALONG A BROAD SWATH OF THE I-35
   CORRIDOR...POSSIBLY SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH MID
   AFTERNOON DESPITE APPROACHING SPEED MAX.  HOWEVER...STRONG HEATING
   WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH
   DRYLINE CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP FROM SWRN KS...ARCING ACROSS THE ERN
   TX PANHANDLE INTO NWRN TX.  THESE STORMS WILL EVOLVE WITHIN AN
   INCREASINGLY SHEARED AIRMASS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS.  ONCE THIS
   ACTIVITY MATURES...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FAVOR ENEWD MOVEMENT
   ACROSS KS/OK BENEATH EJECTING SPEED MAX.  ADDITIONALLY...LLJ IS
   FORECAST TO INCREASE MARKEDLY BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH 50-70KT CORE
   FOCUSING FROM NRN OK INTO SERN NEB.

   AN UPWARD EVOLVING CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
   CNTRL PLAINS INTO IA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AS LLJ
   SHIFTS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

   FARTHER NORTH...BROAD DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ALSO SUPPORT
   ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION FROM SD INTO SRN MN...ALONG/SOUTH OF WARM
   FRONT.


   ...NORTHEASTERN U.S...

   BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST A MID LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH/SPEED MAX
   WILL EJECT ACROSS SRN ONTARIO INTO UPSTATE NY BY 18Z.  WHILE WEAK
   HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FOCUSED NORTH OF THE
   U.S./CANADIAN BORDER...MODEST WLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS NY
   SUCH THAT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE THAN SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
   TSTMS.  IN THE ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT INHIBITION SCT TSTMS SHOULD
   EASILY DEVELOP ALONG SRN INFLUENCE OF AFOREMENTIONED SHORT-WAVE
   WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST ORGANIZED MULTI-CELLS
   AND LINE SEGMENTS.  DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR WOULD ALSO SUGGEST WEAK
   ROTATION IS POSSIBLE...THOUGH DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY
   THREAT WITH THESE DIURNALLY ENHANCED CLUSTERS.

   ..DARROW.. 05/28/2013

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z