May 30, 2013 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu May 30 17:47:48 UTC 2013
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20130530 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20130530 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MODERATE 24,041 2,203,186 Tulsa, OK...Broken Arrow, OK...Joplin, MO...Ponca City, OK...Independence, KS...
SLIGHT 323,205 43,939,722 Chicago, IL...Indianapolis, IN...Milwaukee, WI...Oklahoma City, OK...Kansas City, MO...
   SPC AC 301744

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1244 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

   VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NRN AND NERN OK...SERN
   KS...SWRN MO...AND FAR NWRN AR...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM OK INTO SRN WI AND MI...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL STRETCH FROM THE CNTRL
   PLAINS NEWD TO THE GREAT LAKES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER
   LOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS GRADUALLY SHIFTS EWD INTO THE UPPER MS
   VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE ERN
   DAKOTAS INTO WRN MN...WITH A SYNOPTIC FRONT EXTENDING SWD INTO ERN
   KS AND SWWD INTO NWRN TX WHERE A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW WILL EXIST. 

   AHEAD OF THE MAIN BOUNDARY...AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
   INSTABILITY WILL BE MAINTAINED BY PERSISTENT SLY LOW LEVEL
   FLOW...FROM OK NEWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY. PRESENCE OF MODERATELY
   STRONG WIND FIELDS OVER THE SAME AREAS SHOULD RESULT IN A LARGE AREA
   OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING.
   A LOCALLY HIGHER CONCENTRATION OF SEVERE WEATHER IS MOST LIKELY
   ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA...PARTICULARLY FROM NRN/NERN OK INTO
   SERN KS AND SWRN MO INTO THE EVENING.

   ...CNTRL OK INTO SWRN MO...
   VERY STRONG INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD
   FRONT...WHICH SHOULD EXTEND FROM SRN KS INTO WRN OK BY AFTERNOON.
   EARLY STORMS OVER ERN KS AND MO ARE FURTHER EXPECTED TO CREATE AN
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH WILL ROUGHLY BE ACROSS THE SERN KS/NERN OK
   VICINITY. ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE TOO HIGH WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
   DEWPOINTS...DEPICTING MID 70S F...MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL
   SHOW VERY STRONG INSTABILITY AND CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE
   FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...A FEW TORNADOES...AND
   DAMAGING WINDS. 

   INITIAL SUPERCELLS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT/DRYLINE IN N
   CNTRL INTO W CNTRL OK WHERE HEATING WILL BE STRONG...THEN DEVELOP
   NEWD WITH TIME. CELLS ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE INTO A SEVERE MCS...WITH
   ALL MODES OF SEVERE POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH TORNADO THREAT SHOULD
   DECREASE DURING THE EVENING ONCE A MORE LINEAR STORM MODE
   DEVELOPS...SIGNIFICANT STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
   HAIL. 

   ...CNTRL MO INTO IL AND IND...
   SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING FROM ERN KS INTO WRN MO
   EARLY FRI...AND SHOULD PERSIST IN SOME FORM THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS
   THEY EVOLVE EWD ACROSS MO AND INTO IL. THESE STORMS WILL BE FORCED
   MAINLY DUE TO WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET...AND
   SOME UPSCALE GROWTH MIGHT OCCUR AS GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION OCCURS
   WITH POCKETS OF HEATING. SHEAR PROFILES WILL CERTAINLY SUPPORT
   SEVERE STORMS...WITH ALL MODES POSSIBLE INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND
   BOWING SEGMENTS...CAPABLE OF A FEW TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
   LARGE HAIL.

   ...SERN MN...SWRN WI INTO CNTRL IA...
   WHILE EARLIER CONVECTION TO THE S MAY INHIBIT NWD MOISTURE RETURN
   AND DESTABILIZATION ACROSS IA MN AND WI...VERY COOL PROFILES ALOFT
   MAY COMPENSATE AND ALLOW FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS TO FORM LATE IN THE
   DAY ALONG THE COLD FRONT. HAIL AND A FEW SEVERE GUSTS SHOULD BE THE
   MOST LIKELY THREATS.

   ..JEWELL.. 05/30/2013

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z