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| Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 251725 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1225 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID/UPPER-MS VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WEST AS AN ANTICYCLONE STRENGTHENS NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS. IN RESPONSE...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL SHIFT EWD AND EVENTUALLY SEWD. A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER NWRN ONTARIO WILL PROGRESS INTO SRN QUEBEC. A SERIES OF CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED IMPULSES SHOULD MOVE EWD FROM PARTS OF THE MS VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST. ...MID/UPPER-MS VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST... A BROAD AREA OF AT LEAST SEMI-ORGANIZED SEVERE RISK IS EVIDENT...WITH CONCENTRATED REPORT SWATHS LIKELY MODULATED BY THE IMPACT OF D1 CONVECTION AND SUBSEQUENT INFLUENCE OF REMNANT MCV/S ON BOTH THE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT. ON THE LARGE-SCALE...WITH A VEERED LLJ RELATIVE TO RECENT DAYS FROM THE SRN PLAINS ACROSS THE MIDWEST...A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING AT 12Z/WED WITHIN A WAA REGIME. POCKETS OF STRONG DOWNSTREAM INSOLATION SHOULD RESULT IN SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY INTENSIFYING WITH AT LEAST SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR MULTICELL CLUSTERS...YIELDING RISKS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL. THE MOST VOLATILE THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT WILL PROBABLY BE CENTERED FROM THE MID-MS TO LOWER OH VALLEY. WITH A BELT OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW /BECOMING NWLY/ AND SUSTENANCE OF THE LLJ...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. WARMING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL WEAKEN LAPSE RATES...BUT VERY WARM/MOIST MIXED-LAYER PARCELS SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. INITIAL SUPERCELLS WOULD BE CAPABLE OF ALL SEVERE HAZARDS. HOWEVER...GIVEN WINDS LARGELY SLACKENING WITH HEIGHT FROM THE MID TO UPPER-LEVELS...SETUP SHOULD YIELD UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN MCS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR BOWING LINE SEGMENTS RESULTING IN A PREDOMINANT SEVERE WIND THREAT. ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST E/SEWD TOWARDS PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS AND TN VALLEY WITH DIMINISHING DAMAGING WIND RISK OVERNIGHT. ..GRAMS.. 06/25/2013 CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z |