SPC AC 040551

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1251 AM CDT THU JUL 04 2013

   VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...NRN ROCKIES/NRN HIGH PLAINS...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE FOUR
   CORNERS REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD THROUGH
   THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...THE MODELS SHOW A MOIST
   AXIS EXTENDING NWWD FROM WRN SD INTO NE MT WHERE MODERATE
   DESTABILIZATION WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. POCKETS OF
   MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY ALSO DEVELOP WWD INTO SRN MT AND NRN WY.
   THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT STORMS WILL INITIATE ACROSS THE CORRIDOR
   AROUND MIDDAY WITH A CLUSTER OR LINE SEGMENT MOVING EWD ACROSS ERN
   MT INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. STEEP MID-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES AND 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A
   MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT ESPECIALLY WHERE STORMS HAVE ACCESS TO
   MODERATE INSTABILITY.

   ...LOWER MS VALLEY...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MID-MO VALLEY EXTENDING SWD INTO THE
   ARKLATEX WILL MOVE NEWD INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY ON FRIDAY. A
   DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NWWD OUT OF THE NCNTRL GULF OF
   MEXICO INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE ECMWF...GFS AND NAM ALL BEGIN
   THE PERIOD WITH A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED BAND OF CONVECTION
   ACROSS THE NCNTRL GULF OF MEXICO. THE MODELS DEVELOP MODERATE
   INSTABILITY ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY AROUND MIDDAY FRIDAY
   AS THIS BAND MOVES ONSHORE. THIS ALONG WITH 20 TO 30 KT OF FLOW IN
   THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE
   THREAT AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN DURING THE EARLY TO MID
   AFTERNOON.

   ..BROYLES.. 07/04/2013

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z