SPC AC 270517

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1217 AM CDT SAT JUL 27 2013

   VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL
   CLOSED LOW WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
   GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THIS PERIOD.  IN ITS WAKE...GENERALLY WEAK
   ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL
   ROCKIES...THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BETWEEN REMNANT LOW AMPLITUDE
   CYCLONIC FLOW NEAR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER AREA
   AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU. 
   FLOW LIKELY WILL REMAIN CYCLONIC AS FAR SOUTH OF THE GULF AND SOUTH
   ATLANTIC COAST STATES SUNDAY...BUT MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS APPEAR LIKELY
   TO RISE THROUGH MOST AREAS EAST OF THE  MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

   A PLUME OF SEASONABLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER MAY LINGER ACROSS MUCH
   OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD THROUGH THE DAY...BEFORE SIGNIFICANT DRYING
   ADVANCES FROM THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO COASTAL
   AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT.  FARTHER WEST...A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL RETURN
   FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO MOISTENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
   INTO CENTRAL PLAINS...NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. 
   BUT...SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   APPEAR LIKELY TO REMAIN GENERALLY WEAK EAST OF THE ROCKIES.  PEAK
   AFTERNOON MIXED LAYER CAPE IS FORECAST TO BECOME ONLY WEAK TO MODEST
   IN MAGNITUDE ACROSS MOST AREAS...INCLUDING THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
   AND ROCKIES.  

   SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR TO SUPPORT AT LEAST
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...MUCH OF THE
   ROCKIES...ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS AND LOWER CENTRAL PLAINS...AS WELL AS
   THE GULF AND ATLANTIC COAST STATES.  THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY
   NOT BE COMPLETELY NEGLIGIBLE...BUT ANY POCKETS OF STRONGER
   DESTABILIZATION AND VERTICAL SHEAR APPEAR LIKELY TO REMAIN TOO
   LOCALIZED FOR EVEN 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

   ..KERR.. 07/27/2013

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z