SPC AC 140559

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1259 AM CDT WED AUG 14 2013

   VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
   PLAINS...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL EXIST INTO
   THURSDAY...GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
   ROCKIES/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WHILE AN EXTENSIVE TROUGH DOMINATES THE
   EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS.

   ...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
   ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ROCKIES UPPER RIDGE...IT APPEARS
   THAT AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SPEED MAX ALOFT WILL SPREAD
   SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. ON
   THE WESTERN FRINGE OF EARLY DAY SHOWERS/TSTMS...AT LEAST WIDELY
   SCATTERED SURFACE BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY
   AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF A WEAK FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH. SUCH
   DEVELOPMENT APPEARS MOST PROBABLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITHIN
   A CORRIDOR FROM SOUTHERN/WESTERN NEB AND THE WESTERN HALF OF KS
   SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO EASTERN NM/FAR NORTHWEST TX AND NORTHWEST
   OK. 

   WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED CORRIDOR...THE COLLOCATION OF LOWER 60S F
   SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR
   MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY STRONG DESTABILIZATION THURSDAY
   AFTERNOON...WITH AS MUCH AS 2500-3000 J/KG OF MLCAPE POSSIBLE BY
   PEAK HEATING. VEERING LOWER-MIDDLE TROPOSPHERIC WINDS WITH HEIGHT IN
   CONJUNCTION WITH STRENGTHENING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT /30-40 KT
   AT 500 MB/ WILL SUPPORT SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING
   SUPERCELLS/SUSTAINED MULTICELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WINDS. PENDING SUBSEQUENT DETAILS/GUIDANCE...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
   SOMEWHAT HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES AND/OR A SIG HAIL DELINEATION
   MAY BE WARRANTED IN FUTURE OUTLOOKS.

   ...SOUTHEAST STATES...
   AHEAD OF A LOWER MS VALLEY UPPER TOUGH...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
   WILL CONTINUE TO COINCIDE WITH A SLOW-MOVING/STALLED FRONTAL ZONE
   ACROSS THE REGION. POCKETS OF SOMEWHAT STRONGER HEATING ALONG/SOUTH
   OF THIS FRONT MAY ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED DOWNBURST POTENTIAL THURSDAY
   AFTERNOON. THAT SAID...IF NEAR-COASTAL SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT /AND
   AN ASSOCIATED STRENGTHENING OF LOW-LEVEL WINDS/ OCCURS ESPECIALLY AS
   ADVERTISED BY THE 00Z NAM...THEN A LOW POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TRANSIENT
   SUPERCELL STRUCTURES COULD MATERIALIZE NEAR THE RESIDUAL FRONTAL
   ZONE ACROSS PARTS OF FL PANHANDLE INTO AL/GA.

   ..GUYER.. 08/14/2013

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z