SPC AC 240544

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1244 AM CDT SAT AUG 24 2013

   VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT FEW
   DAYS WITH PRIMARY FEATURE BEING A DOMINANT UPPER HIGH PRESSURE
   SYSTEM ANCHORED OVER THE MID MS VALLEY.  SEVERAL CONVECTIVE
   CORRIDORS ARE EXPECTED TO EXTEND AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS LARGE
   SCALE FEATURE...NAMELY ACROSS THE GULF COAST...INTERIOR WEST AND
   INVOF THE GREAT LAKES.

   ...UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES...

   WHILE LATEST SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT REGARDING THE
   LARGE SCALE FEATURES 00Z GFS IS A BIT QUICKER WITH SHORT-WAVE
   TROUGH/SPEED MAX TOPPING THE CNTRL U.S. RIDGE OVER WRN ONTARIO AND
   SUBSEQUENT ESEWD MOVEMENT TOWARD WRN QB BY EARLY EVENING THAN THE
   NAM.  THIS QUICKER SOLUTION WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY MORE VEERED
   BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES AND PERHAPS
   WEAKER CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG WIND SHIFT FROM
   MN INTO THE U.P. OF MI.

   LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL LIKELY PROVE RESPONSIBLE FOR EARLY
   MORNING CONVECTION ALONG NOSE OF LLJ...CENTERED OVER LAKE
   SUPERIOR/U.P. OF MI.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD TRANSLATE DOWNSTREAM INTO
   ONTARIO AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED SHORT-WAVE.  IN ITS WAKE THERE IS
   SOME DOUBT HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL ULTIMATELY DEVELOP ALONG THE
   WEAK WIND SHIFT WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER BUT ENHANCE BOUNDARY
   LAYER WARMING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS MN WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES MAY SOAR
   INTO THE MID-UPPER 90S SOUTH OF THE WIND SHIFT.  ALTHOUGH THE LATEST
   NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SFC TEMPERATURES MAY APPROACH 100F
   OVER PORTIONS OF SRN MN CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES MAY ONLY BE
   APPROACHED AND NOT BREACHED BY 22Z.  FOR THIS REASON HAVE OPTED TO
   MAINTAIN 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
   THUNDERSTORMS EVOLVING WITHIN THE HEAT OF THE LATE AFTERNOON ALONG
   POORLY CONVERGENT WIND SHIFT.  ANOTHER SCENARIO MAY PROVE MORE
   LIKELY WITH STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS WRN ONTARIO THEN PROPAGATING
   SEWD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TOWARD THE U.P. OF MI/NRN LOWER MI ALONG
   NERN PLUME OF STRONG CAP.  GIVEN THAT MODEST BUOYANCY/SHEAR WILL
   EXIST ACROSS THIS REGION...IF SUFFICIENT STORM COVERAGE EVOLVES
   THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR HIGHER SEVERE PROBS.  UNCERTAINTY DEMANDS
   LOWER PROBS AT THIS TIME.

   ...ELSEWHERE...

   WWD MOVING TOPICAL DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO AID DIURNALLY
   ENHANCED CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST SUNDAY AND SEASONALLY MOIST
   INTERIOR WEST WILL REMAIN CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE AS WELL.  ALTHOUGH A
   FEW MICROBURSTS MAY BE NOTED SEVERE COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN TOO
   SPARSE TO WARRANT PROBS AT THIS TIME.

   ..DARROW.. 08/24/2013

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z