Aug 25, 2013 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Aug 25 06:02:38 UTC 2013 (20130825 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20130825 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20130825 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20130825 0600 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 48,555 5,514,546 Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Green Bay, WI...Eau Claire, WI...St. Cloud, MN...
   SPC AC 250432

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1132 PM CDT SAT AUG 24 2013

   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF CNTRL MN INTO
   WI...

   ...UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES...

   UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH CENTER
   OF ANTICYCLONE EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO ERN KS.  THIS LARGE SCALE
   SUBSIDENT FEATURE WILL CONTROL MUCH OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE CONUS
   BUT SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE
   PERIPHERY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER...WHICH COULD
   INSTIGATE MEANINGFUL DEEP CONVECTION.

   LATE EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS ONE SUCH SMALL SCALE
   DISTURBANCE IS LIFTING NORTH TOWARD AZ.  THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO
   ADVECT ACROSS UT INTO WY BY 26/12Z...THEN FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE
   ACROSS THE DAKOTAS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE TURNING SEWD DURING
   THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED AHEAD OF
   THIS RIDGE TOPPING SHORT-WAVE AND PERHAPS EVEN ORGANIZE AS IT
   EVOLVES ACROSS PORTIONS OF MN/WI.

   WHILE WEAK WARM ADVECTION MAY RESULT IN ELEVATED CONVECTION AT THE
   BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT
   LAKES...CONVECTION MAY STRUGGLE TO ROOT INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER
   UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  MODELS SUGGEST INTENSE HEATING
   WILL BE NOTED ACROSS SD INTO SRN MN WHERE NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   SUGGEST SFC TEMPERATURES COULD APPROACH OR EVEN EXCEED 100F.  EVEN
   SO CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE HIGH ACROSS THIS
   REGION AND APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MAY BE REQUIRED TO ASSIST
   PARCELS TO THEIR LFC ALONG/NEAR THE E-W FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  FOR THIS
   REASON EXPECT THE PRIMARY CORRIDOR OF TSTMS TO EVOLVE FROM EXTREME
   SERN ND/NERN SD...EWD ACROSS CNTRL MN INTO WI. VEERED LLJ SHOULD
   EXTEND INTO SWRN MN WHICH COULD AID UPSCALE GROWTH DURING THE
   OVERNIGHT HOURS.  DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL MAY BE NOTED
   WITH THIS CONVECTION IF SAID SHORT-WAVE TOPS THE RIDGE AS FORECAST.

   ..DARROW.. 08/25/2013

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z