Aug 25, 2013 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook | |||||||||
Updated: Sun Aug 25 06:02:38 UTC 2013 ( | ) | |||||||||
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table |
Categorical Graphic | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Probabilistic Graphic | |||||||||
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point. |
|||||||||
| |||||||||
SPC AC 250432 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1132 PM CDT SAT AUG 24 2013 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF CNTRL MN INTO WI... ...UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES... UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH CENTER OF ANTICYCLONE EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO ERN KS. THIS LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENT FEATURE WILL CONTROL MUCH OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE CONUS BUT SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE PERIPHERY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER...WHICH COULD INSTIGATE MEANINGFUL DEEP CONVECTION. LATE EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS ONE SUCH SMALL SCALE DISTURBANCE IS LIFTING NORTH TOWARD AZ. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO ADVECT ACROSS UT INTO WY BY 26/12Z...THEN FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE TURNING SEWD DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED AHEAD OF THIS RIDGE TOPPING SHORT-WAVE AND PERHAPS EVEN ORGANIZE AS IT EVOLVES ACROSS PORTIONS OF MN/WI. WHILE WEAK WARM ADVECTION MAY RESULT IN ELEVATED CONVECTION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES...CONVECTION MAY STRUGGLE TO ROOT INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST INTENSE HEATING WILL BE NOTED ACROSS SD INTO SRN MN WHERE NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SFC TEMPERATURES COULD APPROACH OR EVEN EXCEED 100F. EVEN SO CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE HIGH ACROSS THIS REGION AND APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MAY BE REQUIRED TO ASSIST PARCELS TO THEIR LFC ALONG/NEAR THE E-W FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR THIS REASON EXPECT THE PRIMARY CORRIDOR OF TSTMS TO EVOLVE FROM EXTREME SERN ND/NERN SD...EWD ACROSS CNTRL MN INTO WI. VEERED LLJ SHOULD EXTEND INTO SWRN MN WHICH COULD AID UPSCALE GROWTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL MAY BE NOTED WITH THIS CONVECTION IF SAID SHORT-WAVE TOPS THE RIDGE AS FORECAST. ..DARROW.. 08/25/2013 CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z |