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| Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 261730 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 PM CDT MON AUG 26 2013 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST/MID AND UPPER OH VALLEY REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... A LARGE RIDGE ALOFT WILL REMAIN PREDOMINANT ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S. THIS PERIOD...WHILE TWO TROUGHS -- ONE OFF THE W COAST AND A SECOND OVER ERN CANADA AND WRN ATLANTIC -- AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE WRN AND ERN U.S. RESPECTIVELY. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK/SLOW-MOVING BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CONTINUE AFFECTING PARTS OF THE NERN AND N CENTRAL U.S. -- SNAKING FROM SERN NEW ENGLAND WWD/WNWWD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. FROM THERE...THE FRONT WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS...WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO MAKE SLOW SWD PROGRESS INTO IA AND NEB WITH TIME...WHILE LINGERING ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS REGION. THIS FRONT -- PARTICULARLY THE PORTION LYING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION -- WILL FOCUS PERSISTENT CONVECTION AND AN ASSOCIATED ZONE OF SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST/MID AND UPPER OH VALLEY REGION... A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO BE CROSSING PORTIONS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD -- POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY LOW-END/ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL. EXPECT THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS TO CONTINUE MOVING SEWD THROUGH THE DAY TOWARD THE MID AND UPPER OH VALLEY AREA...WITHIN NWLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE NRN/NERN PERIPHERY OF THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE. SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MULTIPLE SMALL-SCALE FEATURES CREST THE UPPER RIDGE AND SHIFT ESEWD ACROSS THIS REGION. GREATER SEVERE RISK HOWEVER APPEARS TO EXIST IN ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...AS THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE LOWER MI/OH VICINITY DESTABILIZES IN CONJUNCTION WITH DIURNAL HEATING. REDEVELOPMENT/RE-INTENSIFICATION OF ONGOING CONVECTION IN THIS DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT -- WITHIN A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FEATURING ROUGHLY 30 KT NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW -- SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WITH CLUSTERS OF SEWD-MOVING STORMS. THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS DIURNALLY STABILIZES. ..GOSS.. 08/26/2013 CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z |