SPC AC 221721
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1221 PM CDT SUN SEP 22 2013
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
FAST WNW FLOW EXTENDING ACROSS THE E PACIFIC INTO THE NWRN STATES
SUGGESTS THAT THE DAY 1 FOUR CORNERS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE INTO DAY 2. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY UNDERGO
DE-AMPLIFICATION...AS IT ENCOUNTERS A MORE SLOWLY-PROGRESSIVE RIDGE
TO ITS EAST ON MONDAY WITH HEIGHTS RISING FROM THE TN/OH VALLEYS
INTO ONTARIO/WRN QUEBEC. THE TROUGH WILL TRACK NEWD...TAKING ON A
GRADUAL NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER
MIDWEST...WHILE THE SRN EXTENT OF THIS SYSTEM ADVANCES EWD ACROSS
THE SRN PLAINS.
...NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...
A FEW CHANGES TO THE GENERAL TSTM LINE HAVE BEEN MADE WITH THIS
OUTLOOK ISSUANCE ACROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS PER LATEST MODEL
FORECAST OF THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR TSTM COVERAGE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING. A COLD FRONT...ATTENDANT TO THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...WILL SHIFT EWD AND UNDERGO FRONTOLYSIS ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL
PLAINS...WHILE A LEE CYCLONE FORMING LATE DAY 1 OVER NERN CO/NEB
PANHANDLE TRACKS EWD ACROSS NEB. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH/FRONT WILL BE LIMITED AND BUOYANCY SHOULD REMAIN SCANT FOR
ONLY SPORADIC DEEP CONVECTION. A RISK FOR SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS MAY DEVELOP WITH SUFFICIENT SURFACE HEATING WITHIN THE COLD
CORE OF THE TROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL
PLAINS...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE DOES NOT CURRENTLY WARRANT THE
INCLUSION OF SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES.
...GULF COAST AND LOWER MS VALLEY TO E TX.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FL AND ALONG A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING WWD FROM NRN FL TO THE UPPER TX
COAST. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
ELEVATED TSTMS TO FORM MONDAY NIGHT FROM PARTS OF E TX INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY AS WEAK MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS/DESTABILIZATION OCCUR
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SRN PORTION OF THE PLAINS TROUGH.
..PETERS.. 09/22/2013
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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