SPC AC 160441

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1141 PM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013

   VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND
   EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL EJECT NEWD THROUGH
   THE OH/TN VALLEYS THURSDAY AND INTO THE NERN STATES LATER THURSDAY
   NIGHT. FARTHER UPSTREAM...THE BROAD SYNOPTIC TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY
   ACROSS ROCKIES AND PLAINS REGION. AT THE SFC AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL
   EXTEND FROM NEW ENGLAND SWWD AS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CNTRL/SRN
   APPALACHIANS INTO THE WRN GULF. THE TRAILING PORTIONS OF THIS
   BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL OVER THE WRN GULF IN RESPONSE TO THE
   AMPLIFYING TROUGH...WHILE REMAINING PORTION ADVANCES TOWARD THE
   ATLANTIC SEABOARD.

   ...SERN U.S THROUGH MID ATLANTIC REGION...

   PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WITH DEWPOINTS FROM NEAR 70 ALONG THE
   GULF COAST TO NEAR 60 OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL RESIDE IN
   THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. POOR LAPSE RATES AND AREAS OF CLOUDS
   WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL WITH MUCAPE 
   BELOW 500 J/KG EXPECTED. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY SHIFT NEWD
   ALONG THE FRONT AND IN POST FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE SERN U.S. THROUGH
   THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION. DESPITE RELATIVELY
   STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AHEAD OF THE EJECTING
   WAVE...THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LIMIT THE
   THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS.

   ..DIAL.. 10/16/2013

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z