SPC AC 280600

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0100 AM CDT MON OCT 28 2013

   VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
   PLAINS...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER THE CONUS INTO
   TUESDAY...HIGHLIGHTED BY AN INCREASINGLY EASTWARD-PROGRESSIVE UPPER
   TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHWEST STATES. THE INFLUENCES OF THIS
   UPPER TROUGH...COINCIDENT WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS FOR THE SEASON
   ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS...WILL LEAD TO TSTM POTENTIAL
   /INCLUDING SOME SEVERE/ ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE
   LOWER/MIDDLE MO RIVER VALLEY AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY.

   ...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO LOWER/MIDDLE MO VALLEY...
   INFLUENCED BY LEE SIDE TROUGHING AND A SOUTHEAST STATES
   ANTICYCLONE...PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES AND A VERY
   MOIST SOURCE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO HELP ESTABLISH A RELATIVELY
   HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
   SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY. THIS MOISTURE WILL LIKELY
   CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO THE EAST OF A
   SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SURFACE LOW AND LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE...AND TO THE
   SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED
   FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS PARTS OF KS AND THE ADJACENT LOWER MO
   VALLEY/MIDDLE MS VALLEY.

   HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN AFTERNOON SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT
   NEAR/EAST OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SURFACE LOW AND DRYLINE HAS
   DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST 24 HR...MAINLY ATTRIBUTABLE TO CAPPING AND
   MODEST MASS CONVERGENCE UNDER NEUTRAL BROAD-SCALE INFLUENCES.
   THUS...SOME QUESTIONS EXIST REGARDING THE NECESSITY OF A SLIGHT RISK
   ESPECIALLY GIVEN WHAT NOW APPEARS TO BE A NOCTURNAL PEAK CONVECTIVE
   POTENTIAL. THAT SAID...SOME LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
   SURFACE-BASED TSTMS CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT ACROSS PARTS OF
   WEST TX/TX PANHANDLE...AND PERHAPS EVEN SOUTHERN/EASTERN
   KS...ALTHOUGH THE IMPACTS OF EARLY DAY ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS KS
   ARE UNCERTAIN. 

   A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL RESIDE TO THE EAST OF THE HIGH
   PLAINS SURFACE LOW AND LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE...WITH STRONG VERTICAL
   SHEAR /40-55 KT/ OVERSPREADING THE WARM SECTOR...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
   A CONDITIONAL/ISOLATED SEVERE RISK. OF MORE CERTAINTY IS THAT AT
   LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY
   NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITHIN A GENERAL
   CORRIDOR FROM WEST TX NORTHEASTWARD INTO FAR WESTERN OK AND PORTIONS
   OF KS AS STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE REGION.
   ISOLATED BOUTS OF SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN AMPLE ELEVATED
   INSTABILITY/CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR...BUT A FEW NEAR-SURFACE BASED TSTMS
   CANNOT BE ENTIRELY DISCOUNTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
   TUESDAY NIGHT.

   ..GUYER.. 10/28/2013

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z