Nov 15, 2013 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Nov 15 17:33:51 UTC 2013 (20131115 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20131115 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20131115 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20131115 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 69,637 5,029,450 Kansas City, MO...Des Moines, IA...Kansas City, KS...Cedar Rapids, IA...Independence, MO...
   SPC AC 151730

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1130 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2013

   VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MO
   VALLEY AND MIDDLE/UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY...

   ...MIDDLE/LOWER MO VALLEY TO MIDDLE/UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY...
   AN AMPLIFYING/PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH AND INTENSIFYING POLAR JET
   WILL GENERALLY SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
   AND MUCH OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO MIDWEST SATURDAY AND
   SATURDAY NIGHT. IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND/OR
   LEADING EDGE OF HEIGHT FALLS...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO
   OCCUR IN EARNEST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY OVER THE UPPER
   MIDWEST. MEANWHILE...AIRMASS MODIFICATION WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR
   WITH MOIST ADVECTION CONTRIBUTING TO AN INCREASINGLY PREVALENT
   CORRIDOR OF UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS SATURDAY NIGHT
   TO THE EAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW AND A COLD FRONT. 

   INITIALLY...ELEVATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR SATURDAY
   MORNING INTO AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER MS
   RIVER VALLEY. WHILE A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF SOME HAIL
   CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT...THE RELATIVELY MORE PROBABLE SEVERE
   RISK SHOULD NOT OCCUR UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. REGARDING SATURDAY
   NIGHT...THE EXACT TIMING/QUALITY OF THE NORTHWARD FLUX OF LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE IS A KEY QUESTION...BUT AT LEAST SOME EVENING/OVERNIGHT
   SEVERE RISK SHOULD EXIST GIVEN INCREASING MOISTURE AND THE ARRIVAL
   OF STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ELEVATED
   STORMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL WOULD BE THE MOST PROBABLE CONCERN
   SATURDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN/NEAR THE SLIGHT RISK. THAT
   SAID...SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE IN PLACE BY THE
   EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST SOME NEAR
   SURFACE-BASED STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF IA/MO. SHOULD THIS BE THE
   CASE...DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED TORNADO RISK WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

   ...OZARKS VICINITY...
   FARTHER SOUTH...THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY
   APPEARS EVEN MORE CONDITIONAL ACROSS AREAS SUCH AS SOUTHERN
   MO/NORTHERN AR AND THE ADJACENT MS RIVER VALLEY VICINITY. STEADILY
   INCREASINGLY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BECOME SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
   AT LEAST NEAR SURFACE-BASED STORMS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY.
   GIVEN A HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...THIS REGION WILL BE CLOSELY
   REEVALUATED FOR DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL AND A
   POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF THE CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK.

   ..GUYER.. 11/15/2013

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z