Nov 16, 2013 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Nov 16 07:01:51 UTC 2013 (20131116 0700Z Day 2 shapefile | 20131116 0700Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20131116 0700 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20131116 0700 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MODERATE 122,232 32,947,486 Chicago, IL...Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Detroit, MI...Louisville, KY...
SLIGHT 333,511 40,395,766 Memphis, TN...Nashville, TN...Milwaukee, WI...St. Louis, MO...Pittsburgh, PA...
   SPC AC 160659

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1259 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2013

   VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EXTREME ERN IL INTO
   IND...OH...SRN MI AND NRN KY...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
   THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND A PORTION OF THE NERN AND SERN STATES...

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   A STRONG UPPER JET NOW EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY DROPPING SEWD
   INTO THE PACIFIC NW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH BASE OF SYNOPTIC SCALE
   TROUGH. ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT NEGATIVELY TILTED
   THROUGH THE MID MS...OH VALLEYS AND GREAT LAKES SUNDAY...REACHING
   WRN PORTIONS OF THE NERN U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THIS PERIOD. THIS
   FEATURE WILL INDUCE A SFC CYCLONE THAT IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO
   SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING AS IT MOVES FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE
   GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW
   WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE MID MS...OH AND TN VALLEYS...WHILE A WARM
   FRONT LIFTS NWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.

   ...OH AND TN VALLEYS AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS...

   POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND EVENT AND A FEW
   TORNADOES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN AND NEAR THE
   MODERATE RISK AREA ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. 

   CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID 60S ALONG
   COASTAL TX WITH 70 NOT FAR OFFSHORE. A STRONG 50+ KT SSWLY LLJ WILL
   ADVECT PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WITH LOW 60S DEWPOINTS AS FAR
   NORTH AS THE OH VALLEY WITH MID 60S FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE TN
   VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
   WIDESPREAD CLOUDS THAT WILL LIMIT DIABATIC WARMING IN MUCH OF THE
   PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. IT STILL APPEARS PROBABLE THAT AREAS OF
   SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING ALONG WARM CONVEYOR
   BELT SUNDAY MORNING. THUS...THE PRIMARY DESTABILIZATION MECHANISM
   WILL BE LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION BENEATH A PLUME OF EWD
   DEVELOPING 7-7.5 MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. IN WAKE OF WARM ADVECTION
   STORMS...AN AXIS OF MLCAPE FROM 500-1500 J/KG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN
   PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR.  

   THE DEEPENING CYCLONE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASE IN
   FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT SWEEPING EWD THROUGH THE
   GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY. STORMS MAY REDEVELOP BY AFTERNOON ALONG
   PRE-FRONTAL WARM CONVEYOR BELT BENEATH DIFFLUENT UPPER JET EXIT
   REGION AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. SHOULD SFC BASED WARM SECTOR
   INITIATION OCCUR...80+ KT MID-LEVEL WSWLY WINDS WILL PROMOTE FAST
   MOVING STORMS THAT SHOULD REMAIN AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
   THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE DISCRETE WHERE LARGE HODOGRAPHS AND 50+
   KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
   LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. HOWEVER...DEGREE OF THE TORNADO THREAT
   /SHOULD THESE STORMS DEVELOP/ WILL DEPEND ON MAGNITUDE OF
   DESTABILIZATION WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER. 

   OTHERWISE...STORMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT
   FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS AND
   SUBSEQUENTLY DEVELOP EWD. GIVEN STRENGTH OF VERTICAL SHEAR...THESE
   STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO AN ORGANIZED LINEAR MCS WITH LEWP AND
   BOW ECHO STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND.
   ISOLATED TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH EMBEDDED MESO-VORTICES ALSO WILL
   BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SQUALL LINE.

   ...NERN U.S....

   STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY OUTPACE THE AXIS OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
   LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND ENCOUNTER MUCH WEAKER INSTABILITY AS THEY
   APPROACH THE NERN STATES. HOWEVER...SOME THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND
   MAY PERSIST WITH REMAINING LOW TOPPED CONVECTION LATE THIS PERIOD.

   ..DIAL.. 11/16/2013

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z