Nov 25, 2013 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Nov 25 06:46:56 UTC 2013 (20131125 0700Z Day 2 shapefile | 20131125 0700Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20131125 0700 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20131125 0700 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 250644

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1244 AM CST MON NOV 25 2013

   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL FEATURE A SRN
   STREAM UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND A NRN
   STREAM UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND MID MS
   VALLEY. THESE TWO FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO PHASE BY THE END OF THE
   PERIOD AS SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AND
   ACCELERATES NEWD OVER THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST. AT THE SFC...A
   COLD/DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS MOST OF THE
   CENTRAL/ERN CONUS...WITH EXCEPTION TO THE GULF COAST AND SERN
   ATLANTIC COAST. A PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY
   RETURN NWD IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS GA/SC.
   LATE IN THE PERIOD...SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR
   NEAR THE NC COAST. 

   ...FL AND PORTIONS OF THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST...
   AN INLAND INTRUSION OF A PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR MASS IS
   FORECAST TO OCCUR ACROSS THE ERN GULF COAST AND SERN ATLANTIC COAST
   IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SFC LOW/WARM FRONT MOVING NEWD. LATEST SUITE
   OF MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BECOME MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE
   SFC LOW...MOVING INLAND OVER THE WRN FL PENINSULA DURING THE EARLY
   AFTERNOON...AND INTO SRN/CNTRL GA BY LATE EVENING. OBSERVATIONS OVER
   THE GULF INDICATE THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY LOW-MID
   60S F DEWPOINTS. HOWEVER...THE LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD
   PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER PRECEDING THE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER FORCING
   FOR ASCENT WILL HINDER SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION...WITH MLCAPE
   VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 250-500 J/KG AT BEST OVER MUCH OF THE
   REGION...ALTHOUGH HIGHER VALUES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN
   FL WHERE A WARMER AND MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER MAY EXIST. 

   LOW- AND MIDLEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN
   SUBSTANTIALLY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...WITH A 40-50
   KT LLJ BECOMING ESTABLISHED FROM THE ERN GULF COAST INTO THE
   MID-ATLANTIC. SUBSTANTIAL FORCING FOR ASCENT VIA MIDLEVEL HEIGHT
   FALLS AND DCVA WILL ARRIVE LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING...AND
   SHOULD COINCIDE WITH INCREASING COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS NRN
   FL AND GA/SC. DESPITE THE LIKELIHOOD OF MEAGER BUOYANCY...ROTATING
   SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...A FEW OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED
   STRONG-SVR WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF
   LOW-LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR.

   ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING
   ACROSS THE ERN GULF DURING THE DAY...BEFORE MOVING ONSHORE THE WRN
   FL PENINSULA LATE TUE NIGHT OR EARLY WED MORNING. WHILE SOME
   WEAKENING OF CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE...THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
   STRONG-SVR WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA
   WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.

   ..ROGERS.. 11/25/2013

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z