Storm Prediction Center Dec 11, 2013 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

Dec 11, 2013 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

Updated: Wed Dec 11 09:57:41 UTC 2013 (

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Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table

Categorical Graphic

Probabilistic Graphic

20131211 0700 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic

Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

Risk	Area (sq. mi.)	Area Pop.	Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

   SPC AC 110622

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1222 AM CST WED DEC 11 2013

   VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

   ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN MOSTLY HOSTILE TOWARDS MOIST DEEP
   CONVECTION CAPABLE OF GENERATING LIGHTNING DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD. 
   DRY STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INVOF SFC ANTICYCLONE THAT IS
   EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT ACROSS THE PLAINS/MS VALLEY INTO THE
   MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION...AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVENT MEANINGFUL
   MOISTURE/INSTABILITY RETURNING INLAND.

   HOWEVER...WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OFF THE NRN BAJA PENINSULA IS
   EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD INTO AZ/NRN MEXICO AS MID LEVEL SPEED MAX
   INCREASES IN EXCESS OF 60KT.  NORTH OF THIS JET CORE MID LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES ARE EXPECTED TO STEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR AT LEAST SHALLOW
   ELEVATED CONVECTION.  GIVEN THE SPARSE MOISTURE ACROSS THIS REGION
   IT APPEARS THE PROSPECT FOR MORE THAN AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE
   WILL REMAIN LOW.

   ..DARROW.. 12/11/2013

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z