Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 050822
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0222 AM CST SAT JAN 05 2013
   
   VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SOUTH TX...
   
   LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
   EVOLUTION OF UPPER TROUGH AS IT DIGS SEWD ACROSS THE SWRN U.S.
   DESERTS INTO NRN MEXICO BY 08/12Z.  WHILE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SPEED
   MAX SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE U.S. BORDER...IT IS BECOMING
   INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT DIFFLUENT LARGE SCALE FLOW ALOFT WILL
   INDUCE A LARGE REGION OF ASCENT ACROSS SOUTH TX AND WARM ADVECTION
   SHOULD INCREASE MARKEDLY AT FAIRLY LOW LATITUDES.  IT APPEARS A SFC
   CYCLONE WILL TRACK SEWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO TO A POSITION NEAR THE
   LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING.  IN ALL
   LIKELIHOOD AT LEAST MODIFIED MARITIME TROPICAL AIR WILL BEGIN TO
   SPREAD INLAND ALONG THE LOWER TX COAST AS SELY LOW LEVEL
   TRAJECTORIES BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR MOISTURE RETURN.  FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST NEAR-SFC BASED BUOYANCY IS POSSIBLE AS
   MID-UPPER 60S DEW POINTS ADVECT BENEATH GRADUALLY STEEPENING MID
   LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  FOR THIS REASON HAVE OPTED TO INTRODUCE LOW
   SEVERE PROBS FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ALONG
   LEADING EDGE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING WITHIN WARM ADVECTION ZONE.
   
   ..DARROW.. 01/05/2013
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z