Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 090801
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0201 AM CST WED JAN 09 2013
   
   VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...NERN TX TO WRN AR...
   
   HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE SWRN U.S. WILL FORCE SRN PLAINS UPPER LOW TO
   EJECT INTO THE OH VALLEY EARLY IN THE DAY3 PERIOD.  AS STRONG FLOW
   SPREADS ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SFC
   PRESSURES WILL BUILD OVER THE HIGH PLAINS FORCING A COLD FRONT TO A
   POSITION FROM SRN MO...SWWD INTO THE ARKLATEX/CNTRL TX BY 12/12Z. 
   IN THE WAKE OF EJECTING UPPER LOW IT APPEARS MOISTURE SHOULD NOT BE
   DISPLACED TO ANY SIGNIFICANT DEGREE AND SHOULD ADVANCE INLAND ACROSS
   THE COASTAL PLAINS OF TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AHEAD OF COLD
   FRONT.  WHILE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE FRONTAL
   ZONE LATE IN THE PERIOD FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUBSTANTIAL
   CAPPING ACROSS CNTRL TX SUCH THAT DEEP CONVECTION WILL STRUGGLE TO
   DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION.  LATEST THINKING IS ELEVATED CONVECTION
   COULD EMERGE ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS NERN TX INTO WRN AR WHERE LOW
   LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR ASCENT.  GIVEN THE LATE
   ARRIVAL OF LARGE SCALE FORCING AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR OVERNIGHT
   CONVECTION TO BE ELEVATED WILL NOT INTRODUCE SEVERE PROBS AT THIS
   TIME.
   
   ...OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES...
   
   A FOCUSED POCKET OF HEIGHT FALLS/ASCENT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE OH
   VALLEY FRIDAY.  IF MOISTURE RETURNS TO THIS REGION AS INDICATED BY
   LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IT APPEARS SUFFICIENT SATURATION WILL BE NOTED
   NEAR 850MB FOR INSTABILITY THAT WOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED ELEVATED
   THUNDERSTORMS.
   
   ..DARROW.. 01/09/2013
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z