Feb 6, 2013 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Wed Feb 6 08:24:46 UTC 2013
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20130206 0830 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20130206 0830 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
   SPC AC 060822
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0222 AM CST WED FEB 06 2013
   
   VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   PHASING OF NRN AND SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE IMPULSES MAY OCCUR ALONG
   THE NORTHEAST COAST BY EARLY SAT. THIS WOULD YIELD STRENGTHENING
   OFFSHORE CYCLOGENESIS WITH A CYCLONE EXPECTED TO BE INVOF ERN NC
   COAST AT 12Z/FRI. AN ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD LARGELY
   HAVE CLEARED THE S ATLANTIC COAST BY THIS TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE
   TO SINK SWD IN THE FL PENINSULA. IN THE SOUTHWEST...AN AMPLIFIED
   UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE PERIOD.
   
   ...OUTER BANKS OF NC...
   CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE WITH THE ERN NC POSITION OF A DEEPENING
   SURFACE CYCLONE AT 12Z/FRI. THIS FEATURE SHOULD QUICKLY PROGRESS
   OFFSHORE DURING THE MORNING. HOWEVER...A BRIEF FEW HOUR WINDOW OF
   MARGINAL DAMAGING WIND RISK IS POSSIBLE GIVEN STRONG LOWER-LEVEL
   WIND FIELDS AMIDST POTENTIALLY MEAGER BUOYANCY.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 02/06/2013
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z