| Categorical Graphic |
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| Probabilistic Graphic |
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| Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point. |
SPC AC 070829 DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0229 AM CST THU FEB 07 2013 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF CNTRL TX... ...SYNOPSIS... A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WRN CONUS WILL EJECT NEWD AND LIKELY BECOME CENTERED OVER NEB BY 12Z/SUN. LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR ON SAT IN ERN CO WITH THIS CYCLONE TRACKING NEWD TOWARDS CNTRL NEB. A N/S-ORIENTED PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD IN THE SRN PLAINS...WITH CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DEPICTING THE FRONT ACROSS CNTRL OK TO THE ERN EDWARDS PLATEAU OF TX AT 12Z/SUN. A WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE NWD FROM THE WRN GULF COAST AND SHOULD ROUGHLY INTERSECT THE COLD FRONT NEAR THE RED RIVER AND EXTEND SEWD TOWARDS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. ...SRN PLAINS... ROBUST LOW-LEVEL WAA WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD BENEATH A STOUT EML. GUIDANCE DOES DIFFER WITH THE DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE WRN GULF WITH THE ECMWF/GFS UNUSUALLY MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE NAM AND ESPECIALLY THE SREF MEAN. THIS DOES BREED UNCERTAINTY OVER THE NRN EXTENT OF SEVERE POTENTIAL SAT NIGHT. WITH SUCH A PRONOUNCED CAPPING INVERSION AND APPRECIABLE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS /ALBEIT WEAK IN TX/ NOT OCCURRING UNTIL EARLY SUN...PRIMARY DRIVER OF SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT INTERSECTING THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS CNTRL TX SAT NIGHT. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AMIDST STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER SWLYS WOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL WITH INITIAL UPDRAFTS. ACTIVITY WOULD LIKELY FORM INTO ONE OR MORE LINE SEGMENTS WITH A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL. SETUP APPEARS SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A LOW-END SLIGHT RISK DELINEATION. ..GRAMS.. 02/07/2013 CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z