SPC AC 150724
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0224 AM CDT MON APR 15 2013
   
   VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS OK/SERN KS/SWRN MO...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM
   NWRN TX INTO CNTRL IL...
   
   ...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY WEDNESDAY...
   
   ...SRN PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY...
   
   LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A CORRIDOR OF STRONG SWLY
   FLOW ALOFT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS
   LARGE SCALE INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL FLOW IS CONSISTENT AMONG THE
   NAM/GFS/ECMWF.  OF PARTICULAR CONCERN ARE THE DIFFERENCES REGARDING
   THE SYNOPTIC POSITIONS OF THE COLD FRONT WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE
   MOST AGGRESSIVE...ALBEIT SLOWER THAN EARLIER RUNS...AND THE GFS
   CONSIDERABLY SLOWER WITH THE PRIMARY FRONTAL ZONE AT 18/00Z FROM
   SERN NEB ACROSS NWRN KS INTO SERN CO.  LATEST THINKING IS THE NAM
   MAY BE MORE ACCURATE DEPICTING AN EARLY FRONTAL SURGE THAT WILL
   STALL ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY1-2 TIME FRAME BEFORE
   SLOWLY RETREATING INTO SERN KS/NWRN OK BY LATE AFTERNOON.  GIVEN
   THIS SCENARIO THE GREATEST BUOYANCY WILL EXIST ACROSS THE BODY OF OK
   WHERE STEEPEST LAPSE RATES WILL RESIDE...WHILE SIGNIFICANT
   INSTABILITY SHOULD EXTEND DOWNSTREAM INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID MS
   VALLEY REGION.
   
   EARLY IN THE PERIOD 50KT+ LLJ WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS OK/KS. 
   SCATTERED ELEVATED STRONG STORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS KS INTO
   PORTIONS OF EXTREME NWRN MO.  THIS SHOULD SERVE TO MAINTAIN
   AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY ACROSS SERN KS/NWRN OK WHICH WILL BECOME THE
   PRIMARY FOCUS FOR RENEWED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER IN
   THE DAY.  ADDITIONALLY...STRONG HEATING WILL SHARPEN A DRYLINE NEAR
   THE TX PANHANDLE/OK BORDER...SSWWD INTO WEST TX.  LARGE SCALE
   PATTERN APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR SCT-NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE
   AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS FROM OK NEWD INTO MO.  ANY STORMS
   THAT DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE SRN MOST STALLED BOUNDARY WILL POSE THE
   GREATEST RISK OF MAINTAINING SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS THAT WILL
   FAVOR VERY LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES.  DURING THE
   OVERNIGHT HOURS A SECONDARY STRONG COLD FRONTAL PUSH WILL ENCOURAGE
   A FORCED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WIND SHIFT THAT WILL
   PROPAGATE SEWD.  BY EARLY THURSDAY AN EXTENSIVE CORRIDOR OF
   CONVECTION MAY BE NOTED FROM NRN IL...SWWD ACROSS MO INTO NWRN TX.
   
   ..DARROW.. 04/15/2013
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z