May 1, 2013 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Wed May 1 07:14:47 UTC 2013
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20130501 0730 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20130501 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 010712
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0212 AM CDT WED MAY 01 2013
   
   VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   SYNOPTIC REGIME WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A BLOCKING PATTERN FRIDAY
   AS UPPER LOW CUTS OFF AND BECOMES QUASISTATIONARY IN POST FRONTAL
   ZONE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY REGION. SFC FRONT WILL
   OCCLUDE OVER THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. SRN STREAM UPPER LOW OVER THE
   GULF WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FL PENINSULA. 
   
   ...TN VALLEY...GULF COASTAL AREA INTO FL...
   
   A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY OVER
   SRN PORTIONS OF THE GULF COASTAL STATES AND INTO FL IN ASSOCIATION
   WITH THE UPPER LOW CIRCULATION AND WHERE RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
   WILL RESIDE. ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE BEFORE
   DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
   POSSIBLE IN POST FRONTAL ZONE OVER WRN PORTION OF TN VALLEY WHERE
   WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE.
   
   ..DIAL.. 05/01/2013
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z