May 29, 2013 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Wed May 29 07:43:50 UTC 2013
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20130529 0730 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20130529 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 299,820 40,701,399 Chicago, IL...Indianapolis, IN...Oklahoma City, OK...Kansas City, MO...Tulsa, OK...
   SPC AC 290741

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0241 AM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

   VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO LOWER
   GREAT LAKES...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   SOMEWHAT MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
   U.S./CANADA BORDER AS THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE DAKOTAS OPENS AND
   MOVES DOWNSTREAM TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. THE EAST COAST
   RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS THIS OCCURS AND ANOTHER LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSE
   WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
   THE NRN PLAINS LOW WILL SETTLE SEWD INTO A VERY MOIST AIRMASS FROM
   THE SRN PLAINS NEWD ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES. LIFT
   ALONG THE FRONT AND ACROSS THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
   WILL BE AUGMENTED BY DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE OPENING UPPER WAVE.

   ...ERN OK ACROSS THE MIDWEST TO LOWER MI...
   SEVERAL DAYS OF STRONG LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
   INLAND ACROSS THE MS VALLEY AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT ABUNDANT LOW
   LEVEL MOISTURE OVER AN EXTENSIVE REGION. MODEST TO STRONG WLY FLOW
   ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME/EML FROM THE SRN
   PLAINS ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH SURFACE HEATING CONTRIBUTING TO
   STRONG DESTABILIZATION DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION SHOULD
   INCREASE AHEAD OF THE SLOW-MOVING FRONT AND NEAR RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARIES FROM PRIOR DAY STORMS AS HEATING AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT
   ACT TO LOCALLY OVERCOME CAPPING/INHIBITION. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ON THE
   ORDER OF 30-50KT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STORM ORGANIZATION THROUGH THE
   LATER AFTERNOON WITH BOTH LINEAR AND CELLULAR/SUPERCELLULAR MODES
   POSSIBLE. HAIL AND HIGH WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH SOME
   POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS OR TWO EVOLVING INTO EARLY SATURDAY JUNE 1.
   GREATER SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN INCLUDED WHERE STRONG
   INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE FORECAST TO COEXIST WITH A VERY CONSISTENT
   SIGNAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION IN A VARIETY OF LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.

   ..CARBIN.. 05/29/2013

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z