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| Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 090843 DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0343 AM CDT SUN JUN 09 2013 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE N CENTRAL U.S.... CORRECTED TO REMOVE SEE TEXT LABEL FROM THE MT VICINITY ...SYNOPSIS... TROUGHING WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE U.S. THIS PERIOD...WITH LARGE-SCALE RIDGING IN BETWEEN. WITHIN THE RIDGE HOWEVER...AN UPPER FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS VICINITY -- WHICH WILL BE A PRIMARY CONTRIBUTOR TO SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW WILL ACCOMPANY THIS CENTRAL U.S. IMPULSE...PROVIDING AMPLE ASCENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ...SD EWD ACROSS THE SRN MN/IA VICINITY... AS THE UPPER VORT MAX CROSSES THE NRN PLAINS VICINITY...AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST ACROSS AREAS N AND E OF THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW -- PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE NEB VICINITY THROUGH THE DAY. CAPPING IS FORECAST TO BE A CONCERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS /GIVEN BACKGROUND LARGE-SCALE RIDGING/...BUT MAXIMIZED ASCENT JUST N/E OF THE LOW AND IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER FEATURE SHOULD RESULT IN STORM DEVELOPMENT AS THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILES...SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...BUT GIVEN CAPPING ISSUES AND THUS CONCERNS ABOUT STORM COVERAGE...WILL INITIATE ONLY 15%/SLIGHT RISK ATTM. STORMS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE EVENING AS A LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS -- WITH AN MCS POSSIBLY EVOLVING AND MOVING ACROSS ERN SD/SRN MN/NRN IA. IF THIS OCCURS...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL AS HAIL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. ...THE SOUTHEAST... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO EVOLVE DURING THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND INTO THE CAROLINAS/VA...AS THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THIS REGION. COMBINATION OF AMPLE INSTABILITY AND MODEST SHEAR SUGGESTS A FEW STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...WARRANTING LOW-PROBABILITY RISK AREA. ..GOSS.. 06/09/2013 CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z |