SPC AC 150728

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0228 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

   VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS MON
   AFTERNOON/EVENING...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   CONSISTENCY IS POOR IN BOTH RUN-TO-RUN VARIABILITY WITHIN EACH 
   INDIVIDUAL MODEL AND IN THE BROADER SPREAD AMONG ALL GUIDANCE WITH
   THE HANDLING OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSES E OF THE ROCKIES. THIS BREEDS
   RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE IN DELINEATING SLIGHT RISK AREAS OUTSIDE OF
   THE HIGH PLAINS. ON THE LARGE-SCALE...THE AMPLIFYING TREND TO
   MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS SHOULD PERSIST FROM D2. A BROAD TROUGH WILL
   PERSIST ACROSS SERN CANADA. A RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD FROM
   THE ROCKIES TOWARDS THE HIGH PLAINS...AS AN UPSTREAM TROUGH
   APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NW COAST.

   ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
   MODEST LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PERSIST AND SHOULD AID IN THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN
   MON AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH AVAILABLE BUOYANCY WILL BE SOMEWHAT
   DEPENDENT ON EVOLUTION OF D2 CONVECTION...STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL
   LIKELY YIELD AT LEAST A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. MID-LEVEL WLYS
   SHOULD BE A BIT WEAKER COMPARED TO D2 WITH APPROACH OF A RIDGE...BUT
   SUFFICIENT VEERING OF THE WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT SHOULD EXIST FOR
   ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED
   SEVERE WINDS.

   ...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...MS VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC...
   EAST OF THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IS UNCLEAR
   GIVEN BOTH SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE PREDICTABILITY ISSUES WITHIN
   GUIDANCE. A BELT OF MODERATE TO STRONG MID-LEVEL WLYS SHOULD BE
   MAINTAINED FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE UPPER MID-ATLANTIC. THIS
   APPEARS LARGELY TO REMAIN N OF THE MORE STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
   ANTICIPATED TO RESIDE ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST. GIVEN AN
   ILL-DEFINED SURFACE PATTERN AS WELL AS DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING OF
   SHORTWAVE IMPULSES ROTATING WITHIN THE BROADER SERN CANADA
   TROUGH...WILL JUST HIGHLIGHT A VERY LARGE CORRIDOR OF LOW SEVERE
   PROBABILITIES ATTM. 

   THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS THAT AN MCV MAY EMANATE OUT OF A CNTRL
   PLAINS MCS THAT MAY DEVELOP ON D2. IF THIS INDEED OCCURS...A FOCUS
   FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL COULD BECOME EVIDENT SOMEWHERE FROM
   THE OZARK PLATEAU TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY ON MON.

   ..GRAMS.. 06/15/2013

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z