SPC AC 150635

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0135 AM CDT MON JUL 15 2013

   VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SWRN STATES AND GREAT
   BASIN EWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION ON WEDNESDAY. STRONG
   MID/UPPER-LEVEL WLYS WILL BE CONFINED N OF THIS FEATURE FROM THE PAC
   NW ACROSS SRN CANADA...WHILE SEVERAL WEAK ELY WAVES DRIFT ACROSS THE
   NERN GULF REGION AND NRN MEXICO. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS WILL
   BE POSITIONED OVER THE MID-SOUTH...AS WELL AS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
   PROVINCES...WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE LOCATED IN BETWEEN OVER THE
   N-CNTRL CONUS INTO QUEBEC.

   ...NRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...
   LOW-LEVEL ELY FLOW OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL AID IN ESTABLISHING
   DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S OVER MUCH OF MT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
   MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE PRESENCE OF STEEP
   MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER
   WRN MT INTO NWRN WY. AS A RESULT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. MIDLEVEL
   SWLY FLOW RANGING FROM 20-40 KT COMBINED WITH THE BACKED LOW-LEVEL
   WINDS WILL SUPPORT SHEAR PROFILES SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS.
   THUS...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

   ...NEW ENGLAND...
   MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL WLYS ARE FORECAST
   TO SPREAD ACROSS A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /PW VALUES NEAR 1.75
   INCHES...SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S/ OVER NEW
   ENGLAND DURING WEDNESDAY. A CONFLUENT SURFACE FLOW REGIME AHEAD OF A
   COLD FRONT ENTERING SRN QUEBEC COMBINED WITH THE VERY MOIST AND
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL AID IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION. DEEP-LAYER WLY WIND PROFILES WILL BE
   FAVORABLE FOR MULTICELL CLUSTERS...WHICH COULD POSE A THREAT FOR
   ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

   ...SRN APPALACHIANS...
   THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS
   DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE CAPE AND A HOT/MOIST BOUNDARY
   LAYER AIRMASS MAY SUPPORT A MARGINAL THREAT FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS.

   ..GARNER.. 07/15/2013

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z