SPC AC 190727
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 AM CDT FRI JUL 19 2013
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE NEWD ACROSS ERN CANADA...WITH MORE
ZONAL FLOW BUILDING INTO NEW ENGLAND. BEHIND THIS EXITING
TROUGH...NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL STRETCH FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE
MS VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE MID MO VALLEY
INTO THE MIDWEST DURING THE DAY...WHILE A STRONGER LOW AMPLITUDE
TROUGH DIVES SEWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE MO VALLEY WITH THE WEAK
TROUGH...WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS NRN ND.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SWRN STATES.
...NEB...KS...IA...MO...WRN IL...
SCATTERED RAIN AND STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE PERIOD FROM
ERN NEB/KS INTO IA AND MO ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH.
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD CONTAIN MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. IN ITS
WAKE...STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR UPSTREAM ACROSS KS. WITH STEEP
LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG
THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONT FROM SRN NEB INTO NRN KS...AND POSSIBLY ON
ANY EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM NERN KS INTO MO. VEERING WIND
PROFILES IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL FAVOR SLOW MOVING STORMS MOVING IN A
SLY DIRECTION. THESE STORMS COULD BE MIXED MODE WITH HAIL AND WIND
POSSIBLE.
...NRN ND...
SLY SURFACE WINDS WILL PRECEDE THE UPPER TROUGH...AND WILL HELP TO
BRING UPPER 50S F DEWPOINTS NWD INTO THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEEPEN OVER FAR ERN MT DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH FORCING FOR
ASCENT INCREASING THROUGH EVENING AS A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND
THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSES EWD. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A HAIL AND WIND THREAT MAINLY ACROSS
NRN ND.
..JEWELL.. 07/19/2013
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
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