SPC AC 050601
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0101 AM CDT MON AUG 05 2013
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS MANITOBA AND WRN
ONTARIO AS A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS NEWD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO QUEBEC BY THU MORNING. THE EARLY LIFTING OF THIS WAVE
WILL RESULT IN HEIGHT RISES AND VEERING MIDLEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION...WHERE THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL.
AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN PRESENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THE DAYTIME.
TO THE W...ELY FLOW AROUND A NRN PLAINS HIGH WILL MAINTAIN
SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH
STATIONARY FRONT REMAINING ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER AND EXTENDING WWD
INTO SERN CO/NERN NM. UPSLOPE FLOW AS WELL AS THE STALLED FRONT WILL
BE A FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS...WITH MAINLY A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT.
...OH VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...
HEATING IS EXPECTED TO STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM LOWER MI
SWWD INTO IL AND MO NEAR THE SLOW MOVING FRONT. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
BE WEAK...BUT ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL OR WIND WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND MODERATE
NWLY FLOW ALOFT.
...SERN CO/NERN NM EWD INTO SRN KS/NRN OK...
EARLY STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING OVER MUCH OF WRN KS AND ERN CO
DUE TO THE COLD FRONT AND ELY FLOW ALONG AND BEHIND. LATER IN THE
DAY...THIS FRONT SHOULD STALL...AND UPSLOPE FLOW AND AREAS OF
HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER CO AND NM...THEN
EWD OVER KS AND OK. WHILE WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAK...IT
WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW FORWARD PROPAGATING CLUSTERS OF
STORMS GIVEN DEEP ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE FRONT. MARGINALLY
SEVERE WIND AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.
..JEWELL.. 08/05/2013
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
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