Aug 5, 2013 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Mon Aug 5 06:05:30 UTC 2013 (20130805 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20130805 0730Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20130805 0730 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20130805 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 050601

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0101 AM CDT MON AUG 05 2013

   VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS MANITOBA AND WRN
   ONTARIO AS A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS NEWD ACROSS THE GREAT
   LAKES AND INTO QUEBEC BY THU MORNING. THE EARLY LIFTING OF THIS WAVE
   WILL RESULT IN HEIGHT RISES AND VEERING MIDLEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE OH
   VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION...WHERE THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL.
   AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN PRESENT ALONG THE
   BOUNDARY FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THE DAYTIME.

   TO THE W...ELY FLOW AROUND A NRN PLAINS HIGH WILL MAINTAIN
   SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH
   STATIONARY FRONT REMAINING ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER AND EXTENDING WWD
   INTO SERN CO/NERN NM. UPSLOPE FLOW AS WELL AS THE STALLED FRONT WILL
   BE A FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS...WITH MAINLY A HEAVY RAIN
   THREAT.

   ...OH VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...
   HEATING IS EXPECTED TO STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM LOWER MI
   SWWD INTO IL AND MO NEAR THE SLOW MOVING FRONT. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
   BE WEAK...BUT ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL OR WIND WILL BE
   POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND MODERATE
   NWLY FLOW ALOFT.

   ...SERN CO/NERN NM EWD INTO SRN KS/NRN OK...
   EARLY STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING OVER MUCH OF WRN KS AND ERN CO
   DUE TO THE COLD FRONT AND ELY FLOW ALONG AND BEHIND. LATER IN THE
   DAY...THIS FRONT SHOULD STALL...AND UPSLOPE FLOW AND AREAS OF
   HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER CO AND NM...THEN
   EWD OVER KS AND OK. WHILE WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAK...IT
   WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW FORWARD PROPAGATING CLUSTERS OF
   STORMS GIVEN DEEP ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE FRONT. MARGINALLY
   SEVERE WIND AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

   ..JEWELL.. 08/05/2013

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z