Oct 6, 2013 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Sun Oct 6 06:18:51 UTC 2013 (20131006 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20131006 0730Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20131006 0730 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20131006 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 060616

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0116 AM CDT SUN OCT 06 2013

   VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE WRN ATLANTIC SWWD INTO THE SRN
   GULF OF MEXICO WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE CNTRL AND ERN
   CONUS. MODELS DIFFER ON SPEED OF THE EXITING TROUGH OVER MAINE...BUT
   A FEW SHOWERS COULD OCCUR RIGHT AROUND 12Z AT THE START OF THE
   PERIOD BEFORE THE FRONT QUICKLY EXITS.  

   OTHER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SRN FL WHERE A
   MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN S OF THE STALLED FRONT.

   ELSEWHERE...A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY AMPLIFY OVER
   THE WRN CONUS...WITH UPPER LOW DROPPING SWD OVER WA/ORE/CA THROUGH
   THE PERIOD. ISOLATED WEAK LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION FAVORING THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAYTIME OVER WA/ORE WHEN LAPSE
   RATES ARE STEEPEST...OTHERWISE MOST OF THE COUNTRY WILL REMAIN DRY.

   ..JEWELL.. 10/06/2013

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z