SPC AC 040811

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0211 AM CST MON NOV 04 2013

   VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...TX...

   LAGGING PIECE OF LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE INTO THE SRN PLAINS
   WEDNESDAY ENCOURAGING SFC PRESSURES TO BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS
   DRIVING A COLD FRONT DEEP INTO TX EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  VERY MOIST
   AIR MASS...BUT WEAKLY BUOYANT WITH MARGINAL LAPSE RATES...WILL PROVE
   CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC FRONT. 
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR SUGGEST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
   OF CAPE MAY PROVIDE ADEQUATE BUOYANCY FOR UPDRAFTS TO PENETRATE
   LEVELS NECESSARY FOR THE PRODUCTION OF LIGHTNING WITHIN THE
   STRONGEST CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CNTRL/SOUTH TX.

   FARTHER NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT...WHILE CONVECTION WILL BE NOTED
   ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPDRAFTS WILL REMAIN
   TOO SHALLOW TO WARRANT ANY MEANINGFUL THREAT FOR LIGHTNING NORTH OF
   I-20.

   ..DARROW.. 11/04/2013

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z