Nov 14, 2013 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Thu Nov 14 08:32:53 UTC 2013 (20131114 0830Z Day 3 shapefile | 20131114 0830Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20131114 0830 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20131114 0830 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 140830

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0230 AM CST THU NOV 14 2013

   VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IMPULSE EXPECTED TO DIG INTO THE PACIFIC
   NORTHWEST BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE
   DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY EXISTS AMONG
   THE MODELS CONCERNING THE SPEED OF THIS FEATURE INTO AND THROUGH THE
   CENTRAL U.S...WITH THE GFS REMAINING SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE
   ECMWF EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THE
   14/00Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN HAVE TRENDED A
   BIT FASTER...AND APPEAR IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 14/03Z
   NCEP SREF...WHICH IS FASTER THE 14/00Z OPERATIONAL NAM.  IT
   CURRENTLY SEEMS MOST PROBABLE THAT STRONG MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE ROCKIES
   INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT...SUPPORTING A DEEPENING
   SURFACE CYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE MID MISSOURI
   VALLEY BY 12Z SUNDAY.

   IN ADVANCE OF THE PRIMARY SHORT WAVE IMPULSE...AND ASSOCIATED
   SURFACE CYCLONE...ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE AND
   ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL WAVE ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY PROGRESS
   NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
   REGION...DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...BEFORE CONTINUING NORTH
   NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN/EASTERN ONTARIO.  ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTENING WILL ALREADY BE UNDERWAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DEVELOPING
   RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST...TOWARD THE UPPER
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER
   MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE SLOWER TO OCCUR...AND MAY NOT BEGIN
   INCREASING SUBSTANTIVELY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
   PLAINS/OZARK PLATEAU AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY UNTIL SATURDAY
   EVENING.  DESTABILIZATION PROBABLY WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
   INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EAST OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY
   THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION DURING
   THE DAY SATURDAY...BUT ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL STILL
   APPEARS LIKELY TO AWAIT BETTER MOISTURE RETURN...AND MID-LEVEL
   FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG UPSTREAM IMPULSE.

   ...LOWER CENTRAL PLAINS INTO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
   MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE SUGGESTIVE OF INCREASING SEVERE STORM
   POTENTIAL ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THIS
   FORECAST PERIOD.  DUE TO CONSIDERABLE LINGERING UNCERTAINTIES...
   ONLY SUB-SLIGHT RISK SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE BEING INTRODUCED FOR
   NOW...BUT THESE COULD BE INCREASED IN LATER OUTLOOKS FOR THIS TIME
   PERIOD.  THE AREAL DELINEATION OF THE 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBABILITIES
   WAS HEAVILY INFLUENCE BY THE AFOREMENTIONED ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE AND
   NCEP SREF ENSEMBLE DEPICTION OF DEVELOPMENTS.  INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE/CAPE AND VERTICAL SHEAR ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
   STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET /50-60+ KT AT 850 MB/ MAY PROVIDE THE
   FOCUS FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT...AS THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER
   MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION SHIFTS INTO THE PLAINS.
    THIS COULD BE AS EARLY AS LATE SATURDAY EVENING...BEFORE POTENTIAL
   INCREASES AND SLOWLY DEVELOPS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.  THE ENVIRONMENT
   MAY BECOME CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS...AND THE
   EVOLUTION OF A SQUALL LINE.

   ..KERR.. 11/14/2013

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z