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| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 061910 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0110 PM CST MON JAN 06 2014 VALID 062000Z - 071200Z ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...DISCUSSION... SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES DETECTED AROUND MIDDAY ACROSS ME HAVE CEASED. WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE BAND OF CONVECTION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT ABOUT TO SHIFT E INTO NEW BRUNSWICK...TSTM POTENTIAL WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. ..GRAMS.. 01/06/2014 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST MON JAN 06 2014/ ...SYNOPSIS... DEEP...ELONGATED POLAR VORTEX EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY SWD ACROSS THE UPR GRT LKS WILL PIVOT SLOWLY E TO A NW QUE-UPSTATE NY AXIS BY 12Z TUE AS LEAD IMPULSE NOW ENTERING SW QUE SWEEPS RAPIDLY NNE INTO NEWFOUNDLAND. IN THE WAKE OF THE ERN VORTEX...THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW SHOULD WEAKEN AND BACK TO WNWLY OVER THE WRN U.S. AND THE HIGH PLNS. SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH ERN TROUGH SHOULD FURTHER DEEPEN AS IT CONTINUES NEARLY DUE N ACROSS CNTRL QUE. STRONG COLD FRONT ARCING S FROM THE LOW WILL ADVANCE RAPIDLY E ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NEW ENGLAND BY THE END OF THE DAY. ...NEW ENGLAND TODAY... THE MAIN COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING QUE SFC LOW ATTM EXTENDS ROUGHLY N-S THROUGH THE CT RVR VLY. THE FRONT IS FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY WIND SHIFT THAT CURRENTLY IS ENTERING WRN NEW ENGLAND. AHEAD OF THE LEAD COLD FRONT...A PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE BAND HAS GIVEN RISE TO A BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION THAT CONTAINS SPORADIC THUNDER. OCCASIONAL CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY PERSIST WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND AS IT CONTINUES E ACROSS ME AND THE REMAINDER OF MA IN TANDEM WITH THE MAIN FRONT. BUT WITH ASSOCIATED LAYER OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY NOT LIKELY TO INCREASE...AND WITH THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT/DCVA ACCELERATING NNE INTO QUE WITH LEAD UPR IMPULSE...THE LIKELIHOOD FOR AN APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE APPEARS LOW. ...CNTRL/S FL TODAY... MID-LVL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND WEAK LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE SHOULD PROHIBIT DIURNAL STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG SRN PART OF SAME COLD FRONT AFFECTING NEW ENGLAND AS THAT BOUNDARY CROSSES THE FL PENINSULA TODAY. CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z |
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