Jan 16, 2014 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Jan 16 00:56:33 UTC 2014 (20140116 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140116 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140116 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140116 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140116 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140116 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 160052

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0652 PM CST WED JAN 15 2014

   VALID 160100Z - 161200Z

   ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WAS PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS THE
   NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC SSWWD INTO NRN FL. SHALLOW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
   HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A SEGMENT OF THE FRONT ACROSS MD AND NRN
   VA...WITH A LIGHTNING STRIKE DETECTED NEAR KRIC. AREA SOUNDINGS FROM
   15/00Z INDICATE THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION IS STABLE...AND THUS
   ANY POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL REMAIN VERY
   LOCALIZED.

   SHALLOW CONVECTION AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE ALSO NOTED
   ALONG SRN SEGMENT OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE ERN GULF. AS THESE
   SHOWERS PROGRESS EWD FROM RELATIVELY WARMER GULF WATERS TOWARDS A
   COOL/STABLE AIR MASS OVER THE FL PENINSULA...ANY POTENTIAL FOR
   LOCALIZED LIGHTNING STRIKES SHOULD DECREASE.

   ..ROGERS.. 01/16/2014

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z