Jan 16, 2014 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook | |||||||||
Updated: Thu Jan 16 00:56:33 UTC 2014 ( | ) | |||||||||
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table |
Categorical Graphic | |||||||||
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Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 160052 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0652 PM CST WED JAN 15 2014 VALID 160100Z - 161200Z ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WAS PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC SSWWD INTO NRN FL. SHALLOW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A SEGMENT OF THE FRONT ACROSS MD AND NRN VA...WITH A LIGHTNING STRIKE DETECTED NEAR KRIC. AREA SOUNDINGS FROM 15/00Z INDICATE THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION IS STABLE...AND THUS ANY POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL REMAIN VERY LOCALIZED. SHALLOW CONVECTION AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE ALSO NOTED ALONG SRN SEGMENT OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE ERN GULF. AS THESE SHOWERS PROGRESS EWD FROM RELATIVELY WARMER GULF WATERS TOWARDS A COOL/STABLE AIR MASS OVER THE FL PENINSULA...ANY POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED LIGHTNING STRIKES SHOULD DECREASE. ..ROGERS.. 01/16/2014 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z |