Jan 18, 2014 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Jan 18 16:21:35 UTC 2014 (20140118 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140118 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140118 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140118 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140118 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140118 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 181618

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1018 AM CST SAT JAN 18 2014

   VALID 181630Z - 191200Z

   ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   A COLD UPPER TROUGH IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
   STATES...WITH DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS PRECLUDING ORGANIZED
   THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CONUS TODAY.  

   ...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
   ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
   OF A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. 
   SHOWERS WITH AN OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE HAVE OCCURRED IN THE
   PAST FEW HOURS NEAR NYC AND NEAR BOS.  WHILE THIS TYPE OF ACTIVITY
   MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS DOES
   NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT A 10 PERCENT RISK AREA.

   ..HART.. 01/18/2014

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z