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| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 211613 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1013 AM CST TUE JAN 21 2014 VALID 211630Z - 221200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A MULTI-STREAM LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER ERN NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE D1 PERIOD WITH THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST BEING A STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS WHICH WILL TRANSLATE EWD TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE EVENING BEFORE TURNING NEWD AND DE-AMPLIFYING OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. THIS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL BE PRECEDED BY A LOWER-LATITUDE VORTICITY RIBBON WHICH WILL PROGRESS SEWD ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO AND THE FL PENINSULA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A DEEPENING LEE CYCLONE ALONG THE VA-NC BORDER AS OF MID MORNING WILL DEVELOP NEWD OFF THE COAST BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT ADVANCING SEWD THROUGH THE SERN U.S. ...FL TODAY... A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS IS CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE INVOF CTY WITHIN A ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND DCVA ATTENDANT TO THE VORTICITY RIBBON MENTIONED ABOVE. LATEST CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP EWD ACROSS NRN/CNTRL PARTS OF THE PENINSULA TODAY WITHIN A THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED TSTMS. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED. ..MEAD/GARNER.. 01/21/2014 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z |
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