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| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 301941 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0141 PM CST THU JAN 30 2014 VALID 302000Z - 311200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... NO CHANGES BEING MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST ATTM. WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES BEING OBSERVED INVOF THE FL KEYS...THE SMALL THUNDER AREA OVER PARTS OF S FL REMAINS JUSTIFIED. ELSEWHERE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. ..GOSS.. 01/30/2014 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST THU JAN 30 2014/ ...SOUTH FLORIDA INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS -- REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT... MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY IMPLIES THAT ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT PRECEDING A MIDDLE-GULF SHORTWAVE IMPULSE CONTINUES TO OVERLIE A SHALLOW SFC-BASED COLD DOME SAMPLED BY THE 12Z MFL RAOB -- AROUND 0.3-0.4 KM DEEP. THE MIAMI SOUNDING ALSO INDICATES RICH DEEP MOISTURE /PW AROUND 1.7 INCHES/ AND MODEST BUOYANCY ROOTED ATOP THE COLD DOME /MUCAPE AROUND 1000 J PER KG/. THIS THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURE WILL MAINTAIN A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT...WHILE THE UPPER IMPULSE APPROACHES. HOWEVER...THE SFC BOUNDARY DELINEATING THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COOLER AIR IS ALREADY ANALYZED OFFSHORE. WHILE THIS BOUNDARY COULD BE NUDGED SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE COAST OWING TO MODEST SFC PRESSURE FALLS PRECEDING THE IMPULSE...PRECIPITATION-INDUCED THETA-E DEFICITS INLAND COUPLED WITH STUNTED DIABATIC SFC HEATING OWING TO CLOUD COVERAGE SHOULD PREVENT THE BOUNDARY FROM MAKING ANY SUBSTANTIAL INLAND RETREAT. ANY STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED AND SUB-SEVERE. ...ELSEWHERE -- REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT... A CHANNEL OF STRONG...BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW WILL EXTEND FROM CA INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST IN THE MID LEVELS. MOISTURE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW...ORIGINATING FROM THE LOWER LATITUDES OF THE PACIFIC...WILL AID IN AREAS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS PRECIPITATION FROM CNTRL/NRN CA TO THE CNTRL ROCKIES. WHILE AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THIS ZONE...MEAGER/SHALLOW BUOYANCY PROFILES SHOULD LARGELY PRECLUDE ANY SUBSTANTIVE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY. CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z |
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