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| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 091923 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0123 PM CST SUN FEB 09 2014 VALID 092000Z - 101200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... NO CHANGES REQUIRED TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK. ..JEWELL.. 02/09/2014 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST SUN FEB 09 2014/ ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD...WEAKLY CYCLONIC FLOW WITH MINIMAL LARGE-SCALE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE LWR 48 THROUGH MON. EXPANSIVE REGION OF POLAR/ARCTIC AIR NOW PRESENT AT LWR LVLS WILL BE REINFORCED OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN STATES IN THE WAKE OF A SERIES OF LOW-AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE GRT LKS AND SOUTHEAST. ANY RISK FOR TSTMS OVER THE CONUS THIS PERIOD SHOULD OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH E PACIFIC IMPULSE NOW CENTERED NEAR 40N/140W. ...NRN CA THIS EVE/TNGT... E PACIFIC UPR IMPULSE SHOULD CONTINUE ESE...REACHING THE NRN CA CST THIS EVE AND WRN NV EARLY MON. THE SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE VERY STRONG IN SATELLITE IMAGERY ATTM...BUT SHOULD AT LEAST MAINTAIN ITS PRESENT MODERATE INTENSITY. GIVEN AMPLY-MOIST LOW-LVL ENVIRONMENT ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS NRN CA...THE ARRIVAL OF STEEPENING MID-LVL LAPSE RATES/STRENGTHENING ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE IMPULSE MAY YIELD ISOLD TO WDLY SCTD CONVECTION SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO YIELD THUNDER THIS EVE/TNGT...MAINLY OVER FAVORABLY-ORIENTED SLOPES OF THE CSTL RANGE AND SIERRA. ELSEWHERE...SCTD SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER THE FL STRAITS AND OVER THE GULF STREAM WATERS OFF THE SE FL CST THROUGH EARLY MON...BUT CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN TOO SHALLOW/FEEBLE FOR APPRECIABLE COVERAGE OF THUNDER. CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z |
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