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| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 111642 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1042 AM CST TUE FEB 11 2014 VALID 111630Z - 121200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE AMPLIFIED THIS PERIOD AS SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER NM/W TX CONTINUES E/ENE INTO THE LWR MS VLY AHEAD OF NRN STREAM IMPULSE AMPLIFYING SE FROM THE NRN HIGH PLNS. PERSISTENT WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE NM/TX SYSTEM...ATOP SHALLOW COLD FRONT NOW MOVING SE ACROSS THE WRN AND NRN GULF OF MEXICO...WILL LEAD TO EPISODIC AREAS OF CONVECTION/POTENTIAL STORMS OVER THE WRN AND CNTRL GULF CST REGION THROUGH EARLY WED. ...WRN/CNTRL GULF CSTL PLN THROUGH WED... OCCASIONAL BANDS/CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED CONVECTION/STORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE W TO E ACROSS THE WRN AND CNTRL GULF CST REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE ACTIVITY ALSO EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE GULF. IN GENERAL...THE STRONGEST CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT EWD ACROSS OUTLOOK AREA WITH TIME. LATEST SATELLITE AND SFC DATA SUGGEST THAT AIR MASS OVER THE NRN AND WRN GULF OF MEXICO...S OF SHALLOW COLD FRONT...WILL REMAIN ONLY PARTIALLY MODIFIED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE RICHER GULF AIR CONTINUING TO BE CONFINED TO POINTS FARTHER S. THUS...CONVECTION N OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ROOTED AOA ROUGHLY 850 MB ALONG THE GULF CSTL PLN FROM SE TX TO THE FL PANHANDLE. FARTHER W...EML CAP SHOULD PROHIBIT DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WHILE FARTHER E...LOW-LVL WAA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL REMAIN COMPARATIVELY WEAK. WITH MUCAPE REMAINING AROUND 250-500 J/KG AND MID-LVL LAPSE RATES/DEEP SHEAR RELATIVELY WEAK...SVR POTENTIAL APPEARS QUITE LOW. ALTHOUGH APPROACH OF NM/TX IMPULSE SHOULD FOSTER SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE NRN GULF FRONTAL ZONE EARLY WED...ATTM BOTH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS /SWD PENETRATION OF SFC FRONT/ AND STRENGTH/TRACK OF IMPULSE SUGGEST THAT ASSOCIATED WARM SECTOR...AND ANY THREAT FOR SVR STORMS...WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE S OF THE MOBILE/WRN FL PANHANDLE AREA. ..CORFIDI/PETERS.. 02/11/2014 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z |
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