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| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 131630 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1030 AM CST THU FEB 13 2014 VALID 131630Z - 141200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... POTENT SRN APPALACHIANS LOW WILL MOVE NE TO THE LWR CHESAPEAKE BAY THIS EVE...BEFORE CONTINUING NNE TO SRN NEW ENGLAND EARLY FRI AS ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW EXTENDING S TO THE FL CSTL BEND PIVOTS RAPIDLY NEWD WITHIN THE SE QUADRANT OF THE LOW. AT THE SFC...LOW NOW N OF HAT SHOULD ELONGATE NNEWD OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC CST TODAY...BUT CONSOLIDATE AND APPRECIABLY DEEPEN OFF THE DE/MD CST THIS EVE IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPR IMPULSE. THE LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT HEADS NE TO NEAR BOS BY 12Z FRI. ...ERN NC/ERN MID-ATLANTIC TO SRN NEW ENGLAND TODAY/TNGT... ISOLD TO WDLY SCTD TSTMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY IN ZONE OF WEAK ELEVATED BUOYANCY WITHIN WARM CONVEYOR BELT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SRN NEW ENGLAND COASTS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE...EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER EXTREME SERN NEW ENGLAND/CAPE COD. A FEW STORMS ALSO COULD FORM LATER TODAY ALONG COLD FRONT OFF THE NC-VA-MD-DE CST. FARTHER W AND SW...CONVECTION MAY INCREASE LATER TODAY THROUGH TNGT NEAR INTENSIFYING UPR VORT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTING AROUND SE SIDE OF THE MORE SLOWLY-MOVING UPR LOW. THIS ACTIVITY MAY SUFFICIENTLY DEEPEN TO POSE A RISK FOR THUNDER GIVEN STRENGTH OF MID-LVL COOLING AND ASCENT. ANY SUCH ACTIVITY WOULD OCCUR IN CONJUNCTION WITH VORT-INDUCED CONVECTIVE SNOW BURSTS...BEGINNING OVER NRN/ERN NC LATER TODAY...AND CONTINUING NE ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AREA TO NYC AND SRN NEW ENGLAND BY TNGT/EARLY FRI. ..CORFIDI/MOSIER.. 02/13/2014 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z |
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