SPC AC 161629

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1029 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2014

   VALID 161630Z - 171200Z

   ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING INLAND OVER THE PAC NW AND WILL
   CONTINUE ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES TODAY...WHILE AN UPSTREAM WAVE
   APPROACHING 130 W WILL BRUSH NW WA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. 
   OCEANIC LIGHTNING DATA SHOW A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE
   PRONOUNCED BAROCLINIC BAND PRECEDING THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH...BUT THE
   MORE PROBABLE THREAT AREA FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND WILL
   STAY JUST TO THE NW IN VANCOUVER ISLAND.

   OTHERWISE...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS RETURNING NWD FROM THE NW GULF OF
   MEXICO TO E TX...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE LOW
   50S N TO THE MID 60S ALONG THE MIDDLE/LOWER TX COAST.  THOUGH THE
   INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT SOME BUOYANCY...RELATIVELY WARM
   TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN LARGE
   CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.  THERE WILL BE A SMALL RISK FOR ELEVATED
   THUNDERSTORM INITIATION BY 12Z INVOF SW MO...NE OF THE STRONGER CAP
   AND ALONG THE AXIS OF A 35-40 KT SWLY LLJ...AS THE NRN ROCKIES
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMERGES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  STILL...BOTH THE
   PROBABILITY OF INITIATION AND THE POTENTIAL THREAT AREA ARE SMALL
   PRIOR TO 12Z...SO WILL NOT ADD A TSTM OUTLOOK AREA IN THIS UPDATE.

   ..THOMPSON/MOSIER.. 02/16/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z