Feb 17, 2014 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Feb 17 00:34:34 UTC 2014 (20140217 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140217 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140217 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140217 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140217 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140217 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 170030

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0630 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2014

   VALID 170100Z - 171200Z

   ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SERN WY INTO NERN CO AND FAR WRN NEB THIS EVENING...
   A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH A STEEP LAPSE
   RATE ENVIRONMENT OVER SRN WY AND NRN CO TO PRODUCE ISOLATED WEAK
   THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A DEEP TROPOSPHERIC FRONTAL ZONE. AS FORCING FOR
   ASCENT CONTINUES EWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AN ABRUPT END TO THE
   STORMS IS EXPECTED AS THEY RAPIDLY ENCOUNTER A MORE STABLE AIR MASS
   DOWNSTREAM.

   ..JEWELL.. 02/17/2014

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z