SPC AC 221949

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0149 PM CST SAT FEB 22 2014

   VALID 222000Z - 231200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   NO CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE OUTLOOK FOR THIS ISSUANCE.

   ..BROYLES.. 02/22/2014

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2014/

   BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IS PRESENT TODAY OVER THE ENTIRE
   CONUS...WITH COLD/DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS PRECLUDING THUNDERSTORMS IN
   MOST AREAS.  TWO SMALL REGIONS MAY SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATER
   TODAY/TONIGHT...AND BOTH AREAS WILL ALSO SEE A MARGINAL RISK OF
   STRONG/SEVERE STORMS.

   ...EASTERN FL...
   A WEAK BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL
   PENINSULA...ROUGHLY FROM TPA-MLB.  CLOUD COVER IS DIMINISHING TO THE
   SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WHERE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO
   THE 80S YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG.  MOST 12Z MODEL
   SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
   TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY.  LOW LEVEL FLOW IS QUITE WEAK. 
   HOWEVER...RATHER STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SEA-BREEZE
   CIRCULATIONS WILL TEND TO FOCUS THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER
   THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST.  A FEW STRONGER MULTICELL
   STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE AROUND
   PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON.

   ...LA/MS/AL...
   VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST PARTIALLY-MODIFIED
   GULF AIR RESIDES ABOUT 150MI OFF THE LA COAST.  INCREASING SOUTHERLY
   LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL HELP TO TRANSPORT THIS MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND
   INTO PARTS OF THE GULF COAST STATES BY LATE TONIGHT.  MOST MODEL
   SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT SUFFICIENT WARM ADVECTION/LIFT WILL RESULT IN
   ISOLATED-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 09-12Z.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   IN THIS AREA SHOW SUFFICIENT ELEVATED CAPE /AROUND 1000 J/KG/ FOR A
   MARGINAL RISK OF HAIL IN THE STRONGEST STORMS.

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z