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| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 251955
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0155 PM CST TUE FEB 25 2014
VALID 252000Z - 261200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...20Z OUTLOOK UPDATE...
PRIOR OUTLOOK REMAINS GENERALLY UNCHANGED.
...FLORIDA...
THE RAPID REFRESH CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT STORMS WILL INITIATE
ALONG AN EVOLVING SEA BREEZE NEAR COASTAL AREAS AROUND MIAMI BY
21-23Z. ALTHOUGH SUPPORT FROM THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA IS NOT
CLEAR...THIS DOES NOT SEEM COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. IF
LOW-LEVEL FORCING BECOMES SUFFICIENT TO SUSTAIN THIS ACTIVITY...
DEEP LAYER SHEAR BENEATH 40 KT WESTERLY 500 MB FLOW IS SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT A SUPERCELL OR TWO IN THE PRESENCE OF MIXED LAYER CAPE
AROUND 1000 J/KG.
..KERR.. 02/25/2014
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST TUE FEB 25 2014/
...SOUTHEAST FL...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE EXISTING OUTLOOK. 12Z MODEL
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHEAST FL...WHERE SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG WILL
BE PRESENT. DESPITE WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW...COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT
MAY RESULT IN STRONG UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
WINDS AND HAIL IN ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS.
...GULF COAST STATES...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME RATHER WIDESPREAD
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FROM TX ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES.
INTENSE STORMS MAY OCCUR THIS EVENING IN EXTREME NORTHERN
MEXICO...BUT IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER ANY OF THESE STORMS WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE INTO TX.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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