SPC AC 270037

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0637 PM CST WED FEB 26 2014

   VALID 270100Z - 271200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...FL...

   DEEP CONVECTION HAS GRADUALLY WANED ACROSS THE CNTRL FL PENINSULA
   LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  STRONGEST UPDRAFTS ARE LOCATED
   ROUGHLY 50MI SW OF SRQ AND THIS ACTIVITY IS WEAKENING AS IT DIGS
   SEWD TOWARD THE COAST.  00Z SOUNDING FROM TBW EXHIBITS STRENGTHENING
   WLY FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER AND LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
   LESS FAVORABLE FOR UPDRAFTS TO PENETRATE LEVELS NECESSARY FOR
   LIGHTNING DISCHARGE.  WHILE AN ISOLATED TSTM MAY BRIEFLY MOVE INLAND
   ALONG THE WEST COAST OF SOUTH FL...THE PROBABILITY OF LIGHTNING IS
   RAPIDLY DECREASING.

   ...CA...

   WARM CONVEYOR PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND ACROSS CA
   THIS EVENING BEFORE MID LEVEL CAA INTENSIFIES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
   FORCES THIS BAND OF ASCENT INTO THE GREAT BASIN.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   SUGGEST LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 06Z WITH
   SFC-6KM VALUES LIKELY EXCEEDING 7 C/KM BY THE END OF THE DAY1
   PERIOD.  THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES SHOULD INCREASE TOWARD SUNRISE
   ACROSS THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY AS SBCAPE VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND
   200-400 J/KG.  WHILE THIS IS THE MINIMUM IN THE DIURNAL CYCLE SHEAR
   PROFILES WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR WEAK STORM ROTATION.  THE GREATEST RISK
   WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS SHOULD BE MARGINAL HAIL.

   ..DARROW.. 02/27/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z