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| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 010050 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0650 PM CST FRI FEB 28 2014 VALID 010100Z - 011200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CALIFORNIA INTO THE SRN GREAT BASIN/SOUTHERN PLATEAU... THE NARROW CONVECTIVE LINE...NOW EXTENDING FROM JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...ACROSS PARTS OF INYO COUNTY CALIFORNIA... SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SAN DIEGO AREA...APPEARS TO COINCIDE WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING. THIS IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY THROUGH THE 06-08Z TIME FRAME...WHILE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS SHIFT NORTHEAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL AREAS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS AND SHEAR JUST AHEAD OF THIS LINE...THERE STILL APPEARS SUFFICIENT RISK FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS TO MAINTAIN 5 PERCENT PROBABILITIES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...IN THE PRESENCE OF A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTION. ...CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... MID-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REMAINS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WHICH APPEARS COULD PERSIST ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS /UNTIL AROUND 03-04Z/ AND SPREAD EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA. ..KERR.. 03/01/2014 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z |
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